Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 151158
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A strong cold front will bring a shot of snow to several terminals
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through 18-21Z.
VFR cigs will drop to IFR/MVFR as snow band nears the terminals.
Light snow with pockets of moderate snow will allow vsby to
fluctuate between IFR/MVFR with LIFR possible. The snow will end
from north to south after 16-18Z with cigs improving then clearing
out after 00Z. North winds of 10-15 kts...gusting 20-25 kts will
follow the passage of the front. Temperatures will rapidly drop
behind the front with wind chill values becoming dangerously cold
after 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Leading edge of the cold front has pushed to near the KS/OK border
with an expansive area of post-frontal precipitation across KS
into southwestern MO. As the zone of frontogenetical forcing
slides south, precipitation chances will rapidly increase toward
12Z and beyond across northeast OK and eventually into northwest
AR. Precipitation may begin or mix with some rain initially but
expect a quick transition to snow as the cold air deepens.
HRRR/HRRRX remain consistent in showing the highest snowfall
totals across far northeast OK where around 1-2" will be possible
with some isolated 3" amounts not out of the question. Inherited
winter weather advisory looks good, but will add Rogers and Mayes,
where snowfall amounts up to an inch will be possible across the
northern parts of these counties. Given the rapidly falling
surface temperatures, even light snowfall amounts will result in
travel issues. Some southward expansion of the advisory is
certainly possible, with the HRRR suggesting a narrowing band of
light snow persisting well into the afternoon.

Another area of concern will be the potential winter weather
across parts of southeast OK and western AR mainly this evening
and overnight. It appears that the greatest threat will remain a
bit southeast of the area, although some minor accumulations are
forecast especially across far southeast OK. Forecast amounts and
low confidence precludes the issuance of an advisory for now, and
will allow later shifts to re-assess.

Temperatures will fall into the single digits across much of the
area tonight, with some readings near zero near the KS/MO borders.
Forecast wind chills values of -5F to -20F are expected and will
need a wind chill advisory for most of the forecast area.

Another very cold morning is expected Wednesday, although the
arctic airmass will gradually loosen its grip by late week and
afternoon temps return to the 40s and 50s. Even warmer weather is
on tap for Saturday, as south winds strengthen ahead of a strong
upper wave. Shower chances will increase Saturday night into
Sunday, along with a chance of isolated thunder.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   31   5  19   5 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   36  13  23  10 /  10  20   0   0
MLC   36  10  23   6 /  10  20   0   0
BVO   28   1  17   1 /  70   0   0   0
FYV   30   4  16   3 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   30   3  14   5 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   32   6  20   6 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   28   0  14   3 /  80   0   0   0
F10   32   9  21   6 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   44  16  26  10 /  20  50  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for OKZ049-054>076.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     OKZ054>058-061>063.

AR...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ001-
     002.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....11



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