Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211055
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING ANY
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. IN GENERAL...DECREASING CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CEILINGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THE DECREASE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH
THE MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE NOTED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS 285-290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND 10 MB).

DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK INTO WRN AR. 00Z NAM
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND DEFINITELY SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SRN
END OF SHARP UPPER TROF MAY CLOSE OFF BEFORE EXITING THE SRN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NW AR...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP WILL END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.

A SEASONALLY COOL WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 50S.
NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT VIA A COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22




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