Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280456
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1156 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all TAF sites with mid and high clouds moving into the area
late in the period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

UPDATE...

The small pops in the east have been removed. See discussion
below.

DISCUSSION...

Low thunderstorm chances have been removed from the forecast...as
latest surface analysis indicates that Pacific front has moved
east of NW AR. No other changes are needed at this time. A
tranquil and much cooler night is in store for the region.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This forecast will start out on a much quieter note than the last
several, with a brief dry period expected to last from tonight
through tomorrow evening. There remains some potential for
isolated thunderstorms through late afternoon across far eastern
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas, given how winds in that
area have backed to more southwesterly in the past hour and the
slightly more enhanced cu development in the same vicinity.

Thunderstorms will begin to increase from the southwest after
midnight Thursday night, associated with a lead mid level wave in
advance of the larger upper trough in the Four Corners region. The
heaviest rain will likely be focused across the southern half of
the area during the day Friday, just to the north of the slowly
advancing warm front. There will be some severe weather potential,
but the expectation is that the biggest threat will remain to the
south and west.

The dry slot associated with the main upper trough will begin to
move into the region from the southwest late Friday night and into
Saturday, which will push the biggest chance of thunderstorms into
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Saturday and into Saturday
night.

Another dry period will last from Sunday into Sunday night, with
another increase in thunderstorm potential for the early part of
next week.

Temperature wise, things should be near to below normal through
the period, with the coolest temperatures likely from the latter
part of the weekend into the early part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&


$$


AVIATION...10


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