Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 050847
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
347 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
After relatively pleasant weather the past several days, the
weather pattern will begin to resemble late spring over the next
week or so. The warming trend will continue the next few days,
with afternoon temperatures reaching well into the 80s everywhere
by Saturday. Overnight lows will also be on the rise through the
weekend.

An upper level storm system will lift northeast out of the
southwest U.S. into the central and northern Plains late this
weekend and early next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances may
begin as early as Sunday in parts of northeast Oklahoma, but the
better convective chances will be later Sunday night and Monday.
An increase in low level moisture will likely result in afternoon
temperatures being a few degrees cooler Sunday and especially
Monday.

The initial upper system will clear the area Monday night, but
with the far northern track of the upper low, the surface cold
front will remain well west of the area. The dryline will get a
nudge to the east however and may edge into the western part of
the forecast area by Tuesday before it retreats back to the west
ahead of another upper level system that will move into the
central and northern Plains by the middle of next week.

Despite rising upper heights Tuesday, will keep low convective
chances due to the proximity of the surface boundaries and the
very warm surface temperatures we will see. Progged 850 millibar
temperatures from all available models support afternoon readings
near 90 in some places Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, especially
if dewpoints mix out some, which is most likely Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again late
Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front finally makes its way into
the area.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures through the forecast period,
which results in readings well above the blended high temperatures
Sunday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  52  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   80  51  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   79  50  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  46  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   74  43  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   74  45  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   78  50  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   77  48  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
F10   78  53  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   80  52  81  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

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