Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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718
FXUS64 KTSA 222035
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
335 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Broad upper trough centered over southern Canada continues to
result in cyclonic northwest upper flow over the plains states
with trey warm sector air suppressed well to our south at present.
Lead shortwave has resulted in widespread showers across western
into central OK this afternoon and this precip will continue to
spread into eastern OK this evening. Limited instability will
keep the chance of thunder isolated through tonight as well.

Stronger shortwave in northwest flow currently near Black Hills
region will drive a cold front through the area Tuesday, offering
additional chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms, again
with very limited potential for severe weather, though small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur with a few storms Tuesday
afternoon as colder mid level temps accompany wave passage. Front
will bring an atypical airmass for late May over the region mid-
week with temperatures remaining several degrees below normal
through Wed night.

The warm and humid air we more often experience this time of year
should return late this week with upper flow trending more west
or southwesterly with time and low level flow from the Gulf.
Models continue to show differences with shortwave energy moving
through the plains and driving another front south over Memorial
Day weekend. At this time it appears the best chance of
thunderstorms and attendant severe weather/heavy rainfall threat
will be early in the weekend, with front bringing cooler and
drier airmass south for the end of the holiday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  68  49  70 /  50  40  10  10
FSM   59  73  50  69 /  50  50  20  20
MLC   55  69  49  72 /  50  40  10   0
BVO   53  68  47  69 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   53  66  47  63 /  50  50  20  30
BYV   55  66  47  63 /  40  60  30  30
MKO   57  67  48  69 /  50  40  10  10
MIO   54  67  47  65 /  50  40  20  20
F10   56  66  49  70 /  50  40  10  10
HHW   56  71  51  73 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....14



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