Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 010736
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
236 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The quiet weather of late persists and will continue to for the
next few days until the next storm system finally makes its
approach toward the middle of next week. The potential for fog in
a few spots this morning is the only immediate short term issue,
with the favored areas of far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas the most likely to see visibility reductions around
sunrise. High cloud cover should limit the spatial extent, as
well as the degree of reduction. Temperatures today should be
within a degree or two of yesterday`s values, with southerly winds
bringing warmer temperatures for tomorrow and especially Monday.

Southwest flow aloft develops by Tuesday with the approach of the
upper level trough. Low level southerly winds will strengthen
during the day, especially across parts of eastern Oklahoma, where
gusts in excess of 30 mph will be possible at times. Although low
level moisture will increase some by Tuesday afternoon, the main
moisture axis will remain west of the area, nearer the associated
cold front, with areas west of Highway 75 on the far eastern
fringes. As a result, the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm
activity during the day Tuesday will remain across western and
central Oklahoma, shifting into eastern Oklahoma and perhaps
northwest Arkansas Tuesday night as the low level jet develops
overhead and low level moisture increases in response. The front
itself will move through the area Wednesday night, with additional
showers and thunderstorms with the boundary into early Thursday.
At least isolated severe potential with the frontal thunderstorms
will exist, but the specific details will highly depend on the
exact frontal timing.

Temperatures behind the front will be near seasonal normals to
close out the next work week, with dry conditions prevailing into
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   81  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   82  52  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   79  49  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   76  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   74  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   80  53  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   76  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
F10   79  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   83  54  85  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22



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