Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 240902
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
402 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
It will be noticeably windier today as surface ridge axis moves
east, and a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Upper storm system
will approach the area by Tuesday, with a 100+kt jet streak
digging a long wave trough across the west. This will induce
surface pressure falls in the Plains, making for an even windier
day Tuesday. Cold front will move across Kansas and western
Oklahoma during the day Tuesday, while moisture streams north.
Airmass will become moderately unstable Tuesday afternoon but
remain capped until late in the day.

Expect storms to eventually develop along the front, with post-
frontal storms possible as well. With the strong shear and
instability that will be present, storms will likely become severe
early on with a threat for large hail with a continuing threat
for damaging wind and hail through the overnight hours on
Wednesday.

Extended models continue to suggest the cold front does not clear
the area by Wednesday morning, but rather, bisect the area. This
will make the temperature forecast quite variable on Wed,
depending on frontal position and associated precipitation.
Temperatures on Wed look cool, with the possibility of widespread
rain behind the front. There will also be the continued potential
for severe weather Wednesday afternoon ahead of the front across far
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

There may be a brief break in the stormy pattern Wed night/Thu
for portions of the area, but elevated storms may form Thursday
night north of the warm front. Upper flow becomes southwesterly by
Friday which will be a favorable set up for episodes of severe
weather and heavy rain given the strong flow/moisture that will be
present.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  59  82  55 /   0   0  10  60
FSM   80  56  85  65 /   0   0   0  50
MLC   79  60  83  62 /   0   0   0  50
BVO   78  56  82  52 /   0   0  10  70
FYV   75  53  80  59 /   0   0   0  60
BYV   78  53  79  61 /   0   0   0  50
MKO   76  56  80  59 /   0   0   0  50
MIO   76  56  79  55 /   0   0   0  70
F10   76  58  80  57 /   0   0   0  50
HHW   77  56  83  66 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....06

CORFIDI



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