Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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347
FXUS64 KTSA 181949
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
249 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Agitated CU/TCU have formed across far eastern OK/western AR and
have recently see isolated convection develop across far northeast
OK. Hi-res models continue to differ with this activity...with the
operational HRRR remaining quite bullish with its coverage across
western AR into the early evening while the HRRRX keeps the
convection rather isolated. Regardless...instability and stronger
mid-level flow may support a few strong/severe storms into the
evening hours.

Will also need to keep an eye on potential convection developing
to our north overnight. Various model solutions suggest some of
this activity could peel off south...making a run toward northwest
AR later tonight/early Saturday.

Mid-level heights start to rise Sunday and especially into early
next week as the upper ridge bridges across the southeastern US
into the southern Plains. Could see some mainly afternoon
showers/thunderstorms...otherwise expect hot/humid conditions with
afternoon heat index values around 100-105F for most locations.

A northern stream upper wave and associated cold front should
arrive into the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday along
with increasing chances of showers/storms. ECMWF/GFS in agreement
that this boundary will push through the entire region later in
the week...along with drier/cooler conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  75  94  76 /  20  40  20  10
FSM   92  75  93  76 /  40  20  30  20
MLC   91  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   91  72  93  73 /  20  40  20  10
FYV   87  70  89  70 /  40  30  30  20
BYV   89  71  91  71 /  40  40  30  20
MKO   90  74  92  74 /  40  30  20  10
MIO   88  72  92  73 /  30  40  20  20
F10   91  74  93  74 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   91  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18



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