Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 261059
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
559 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact much of the area
later today, likely beginning across western Arkansas prior to 18z
and parts of eastern Oklahoma afterward. Greatest aerial coverage
should remain across southeast OK into northwest AR. VFR
conditions will prevail, except for periodic MVFR with
thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Band of showers and storms stretches along a frontal zone which
lies from the Great Lakes southwest to southern KS. The activity
should begin to die off as the morning wears on. Some
redevelopment is likely this afternoon along the front, but
indications are that the front will either remain nearly
stationary or drift north, suggesting storm chances with the front
will be lower. The global models indicate a pocket of higher deep
layer moisture and subsequent better rain chances moving into the
region from the southeast around the mid level high over the Mid-
Atlantic. The latest runs of the HRRRX do not appear to be as
excited with precip coverage however. Will thus stay in the middle
ground for pops in the east, with lower values from the Tulsa area
to the north and west.

After the shortwave trough over the Rockies lifts out to the
northeast, a more summer like pattern will return to the southern
tier of states for the weekend on into next week. The flow aloft
will weaken and shift north while some mid level ridging will
prevail over the central part of the country. The ridging will
not be strong enough to suppress convection during the heat of the
day however, thus pops are warranted each day.

Daytime highs will be near or slightly above average while
overnight lows remain slightly above average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
FSM   89  72  91  73 /  50  30  40  10
MLC   89  70  91  71 /  50  20  30  10
BVO   90  68  91  68 /  30  20  30  30
FYV   85  68  87  68 /  50  30  40  10
BYV   85  68  87  68 /  50  30  40  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /  50  30  30  10
MIO   88  69  90  70 /  50  20  30  20
F10   89  70  91  71 /  40  20  30  10
HHW   88  71  92  72 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14



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