Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 161929
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
229 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Subtle wave with broad warm advection corridor is supporting
widespread showers spreading toward E OK with a focused corridor
of thunderstorms nearer the Red River Valley. Precip will maintain
a steady eastward advance and decrease from north to south by
early evening with overall rainfall amounts remaining light. A
separate wave tracking ESE within the amplifying larger scale
eastern CONUS trough will maintain widespread cloud cover
overnight while ushering a cold front across the area overnight
through early Sunday. Cloud cover will help keep temps more mild
in the otherwise post frontal colder airmass.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Clouds clear on Sunday with breezy northerly winds and cooler
temps area wide. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday night and
excellent radiation cooling conditions will allow for widespread
low temps into the lower 30s with a hard freeze possible across
far NE OK into far NW AR. Below normal high temps on Monday with
another freeze likely for portions of the area Monday night. Winds
will begin to increase and turn southerly Monday night so widely
varying low temps are expected.
Breezy and warmer conditions Tuesday with a large westerly
component to the wind limiting moisture return. The result will be
an increase in grassland fire weather concerns primarily across
northeast OK.
The flow aloft becomes less amplified by mid week and the upper
low currently over the southwest CONUS will weaken as it ejects
eastward across the Plains. Timing remains consistent with
increasing rain chances Wednesday and more so Wednesday night into
Thursday. A few thunderstorms are also likely during this period
however overall rainfall amounts continue to rather light with
heavier amounts further south across E TX.
A brief cool down as the Thursday wave passes before temps warm
back above normal with a potentially more unsettled pattern by
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Light-moderate rain is forecast to move across far SE OK late this
afternoon and into west-central AR early this evening. Both MLC
and FSM may be impacted for a handful of hours. Brief MVFR
ceilings may develop as a result. Kept thunder out of the TAFs for
now as elevated instability should be confined closer to the Red
River. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail at all terminal sites
over the next 24 hours. A cold front will move through the region
late tonight and into early Sunday morning. Northerly winds will
gradually increase through the morning on Sunday and mid/upper
level clouds are expected to thicken up ahead of and along the
front. However mostly clear skies are expected by the tail-end of
the TAF period.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 48 63 31 53 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 52 65 36 54 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 51 65 35 55 / 20 0 0 0
BVO 43 62 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 44 61 27 49 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 44 58 28 47 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 49 62 32 51 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 41 58 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
F10 49 63 33 53 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 54 65 38 56 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67