Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 312027
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW ALONG MO/KS BORDER HAS
HELPED MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTERED OUT SOME INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK...BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER PESSIMISTIC
WITH CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MORE SUN
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

UPPER LOW WILL TEMPORARILY CUT OFF ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
ABOUT MID-WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC
STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER
RIDGING/RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE AND EVEN A BIT ABOVE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS BY MID-LATE WEEK...AND GFS REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH WITH QPF
SIGNAL THAN THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF...WITH OVERALL
BEST CHANCES OF STORMS (AND HEAVY RAINFALL) EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS (20 PERCENT) FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  78  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   60  79  62  82 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   56  78  61  81 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   52  76  59  81 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   52  74  57  79 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   54  71  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   55  77  61  80 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   53  76  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
F10   56  76  62  81 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   60  79  62  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18




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