Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE WEATHER REMAINS STUCK IN THE CURRENT PATTERN... A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACCURATE. THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN STRENGTH AND POSITION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY
TOMORROW FOR PARTS OF NE OK/AR RIVER VALLEY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS VALUES A BIT BELOW THE 105F CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF/CMC OVER THE FASTER
GFS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY IN
THE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. BEST PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS. NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER HIGH BRIDGES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06





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