Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 022352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE REGION. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE
CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY A WIND-SHIFT LINE...WAS NOTED
ACROSS NE OK EXTENDING INTO WRN OK. SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (SURFACE-BASED CAPES 3500-4000
J/KG) ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK FRONT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SINKING SWD AND WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER S INTO SE OK AND WRN AR FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A RETREATING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE HIGH FORECAST PRECIP-WATER VALUES (AROUND 2
INCHES)...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  60  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  70  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  70  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  60  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  60  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  70  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...20


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