Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 251753
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH REMAINING BREEZY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER FSM...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE REMAIN IN THE 35-45KT RANGE. ALSO LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING THE CWA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND A WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE
HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH A DIFFERENCE OF
ABOUT 22 MB AT THE SURFACE FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE RESULT HAS BEEN GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 15 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE STATE AT MID
MORNING.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40+ MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE
WAVE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 50S....A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 60 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS...WARMER TEMPS AND ALSO AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES FALLING
BELOW 40 PERCENT WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGERS ACROSS
THE CWA. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL AS THIS WILL BE WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES ARE CO-LOCATED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW. ALSO...THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LET IT RIDE AS IS.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK WIND/TEMP GRIDS BASED ON THE
MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ALSO TWEAK SKY GRIDS AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  45  57  37 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   56  41  58  48 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   58  47  56  41 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   57  42  56  34 /   0   0  20  60
FYV   52  42  54  44 /   0   0  20  60
BYV   51  41  57  45 /   0   0  20  60
MKO   57  44  55  40 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   55  43  56  37 /   0   0  20  60
F10   58  46  56  38 /   0   0  20  60
HHW   59  44  57  48 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.