Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 081100
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12Z TAFS, intermittent MVFR conditions, or possibly brief
IFR conditions, will remain possible at Northwest Arkansas sites
for a couple more hours this morning. After that, VFR conditions
will prevail at all sites until late tonight. A cold front will
move into Oklahoma from the north late in the forecast period,
increasing thunderstorm chances at Northeast Oklahoma sites.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/
A very warm and somewhat humid day is in store today ahead of a
cold front that will sweep across the area tonight and early
Friday. Precipitation with the front is expected to be post
frontal and will be most likely in northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas late tonight and early Friday.
Temperatures will fall back to near the seasonal normals behind
the front Friday into Saturday. A big warmup will take place
Sunday, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected. A Pacific
cold front will sweep across the area early Monday, followed by
another one late in the week. A very dry low level airmass will
preclude precipitation next week, and temperatures will generally
run above normal for afternoon highs and near or slightly below
normal for overnight lows.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days. The
GFS MOS looks too bullish with pops tonight with the NAM MOS too
dry. A compromise solution per the ECMWF looks best at this time.