Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 242333
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing isolated convection expected to wane after sunset with
focus on expanding convection late tonight near the OK / KS
border. Expectations are that the associated boundary with this
area of storms will push southward and remain a focus for renewed
convection during much of the day on Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Yet another hot and humid one this afternoon...with current heat
index values running around 105-110F across much of eastern OK and
west central AR. Isolated convection has developed again in the
southeastern portions of the forecast area...which will persist
into the early evening. Additional convection is expected to
develop later this afternoon across a weak frontal boundary draped
across south-central KS. HRRRX suggests that some of this activity
could eventually drift into parts of northeast OK later
tonight...and this is where highest PoPs will be situated mainly
after 06z.

The boundary looks to stall near the KS/OK border into
Monday...with widely scattered showers/storms possible areawide
in the unstable and weakly capped atmosphere. Light easterly
surface flow...along with increased cloud cover and areas of
precipitation should hold temperatures down a few degrees...so
have held off on extending any heat headlines.

Extended models continue to show a retrogression of the upper
ridge into the southwestern states...with strengthening
northwesterly flow developing...especially later in the week. This
pattern will be favorable for more seasonal temperatures and daily
shower/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  96  76  94 /  30  30  30  30
FSM   78  94  75  94 /  20  40  30  30
MLC   75  95  74  94 /  20  30  30  30
BVO   71  94  70  93 /  40  30  30  30
FYV   71  91  70  91 /  20  40  30  30
BYV   73  91  70  90 /  20  40  30  30
MKO   76  95  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
MIO   73  93  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
F10   75  95  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
HHW   76  95  75  95 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07


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