Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 282318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED FOR
THE CWA. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT HELPING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPOTS
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE/SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MORE
SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HAVE USED A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. LIKE THE LAST BIG PRECIP EVENT...THE NAM
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 70S. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOPS...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER COOL WEEK IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







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