Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 021139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE ONGOING OR GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FOR KMLC AND THE NW ARKANSAS TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE TX WILL DRIFT INTO SE OK THIS MORNING...SO
WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A
PATCHY FOG MENTION AS LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOCKED IN AREA WIDE. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL
REMAIN LOW TODAY AS SYSTEM OFF THE CA SLOWS THE PATTERN FLOW SOME.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS TOMORROW...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL AID PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...RAIN...ALONG WITH MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY PRECIP
FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE ON ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW...HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING
AS SOME MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASING AMOUNTS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  39  57  25 /  20  30  50  40
FSM   42  39  60  31 /  30  30  70  60
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  30  30  60  60
BVO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  50  40
FYV   40  36  58  25 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   39  36  57  23 /  20  30  70  50
MKO   41  36  58  25 /  20  30  60  50
MIO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  60  40
F10   40  37  59  26 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   43  40  62  35 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





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