Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
845
FXUS64 KTSA 230444
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection across western OK will make a run at eastern OK and
have introduced VCTS for the OK TAF sites around 10z...with
VCSH for the AR sites toward 15z. While brief MVFR conditions
can`t be ruled out...expect mainly VFR through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing thunderstorms in the eastern panhandles making slow
eastward progress. The expectation continues that much of this
will diminish before reaching eastern Oklahoma, with perhaps only
areas along and west of Highway 75 seeing any remnants. Of this
area, it appears that parts of southeast Oklahoma would be the
most favored at this point, given recent data from the HRRR and
current location of the most developed area of convection. Have
made a few minor tweaks to the POPs after 06Z to account for this
thinking, as well as minor changes to the Sky grids to spread
cloud cover into northwest Arkansas faster. Updated forecast
products coming soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible for eastern OK TAF sites late tonight
and into Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge is shifting off to the east and we will be under
the influence of the western U.S. trough for at least the next
week or so. The dryline will remain well to our west for most of
the week, but we will be at risk of seeing at least the remnants
of any storms that develop well to our west making it far enough
east to affect us. Weak impulses moving out of the western trough
may also trigger scattered showers and storms within our forecast
area just about any day this week. Instability will be sufficient
for severe storms, especially from Tuesday on.

The main upper system will finally lift northeast into the central
Plains by Friday, perhaps 12 hours or so sooner than it appeared
at this time yesterday. Thus Friday will likely see the greatest
precipitation coverage, and greatest severe weather risk, of the
week.

Even after this system lifts out, another trough develops near the
West Coast, and the dryline gets left behind to our west, so storm
chances will continue through next weekend, as will the warm and
humid conditions.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  83  69  85 /  10  40  30  30
FSM   62  86  67  84 /  10  30  20  30
MLC   67  83  70  82 /  20  30  30  30
BVO   64  82  67  84 /  10  40  30  30
FYV   58  82  64  80 /   0  20  20  30
BYV   58  82  64  80 /   0  20  20  30
MKO   63  83  68  83 /  10  30  30  30
MIO   63  83  67  82 /  10  30  30  30
F10   66  82  69  83 /  20  40  30  30
HHW   65  85  69  84 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.