Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251151
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
651 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to
spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through the
day as a cold front moves through the CWA. Periods of MVFR
conditions will be possible within the precip as well as for a
few hours behind the frontal passage. Also behind the
front...breezy northwest to northerly winds will be possible. By
late afternoon/early evening precip should begin to taper off from
north to south with skies clearing out. Southeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas should remain mostly cloudy through the end of
the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms across central Oklahoma
will continue shifting slowly eastward this morning and affect
areas mainly west of highway 75. Additional thunderstorm are
expected to develop later this morning and become more numerous
as cold front moves into northeast Oklahoma around mid morning.
Precipitable water remains around 2 inches along/ahead of front
with potential for heavy rainfall in the stronger storms.

Cold front will continue pushing south through the area this afternoon
however overall thunderstorm coverage along the front may begin to
decrease as region becomes split between upper low developing to
the west and upper trough lifting northeast. Still could see a
few lingering showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two
this evening into the overnight hours across southeast Oklahoma/
northwest Arkansas. Precipitation chances will likely end from
north to south late tonight as drier air continues to filter into
the region behind front.

Beautiful fall weather expected for most of the upcoming week with
dry/mild afternoons and cool nights. Reinforcing shot of cooler
air expected Wednesday into Thursday as cutoff low briefly stalls
over the eastern CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  76  50  78 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   67  78  49  80 /  30  10  10   0
MLC   63  76  49  78 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   52  75  45  77 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   59  72  42  74 /  30  10  10   0
BYV   58  73  46  75 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   59  76  47  77 /  30  10  10   0
MIO   54  73  46  75 /  10  10  10  10
F10   59  75  49  77 /  30  10  10   0
HHW   66  76  55  81 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20


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