Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 010757
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-103 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING MCS OVER
MISSOURI. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TONIGHT MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
TO SEVERE MCS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWEEPING THROUGH MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
INITIALLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES PERSIST.

SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT INITIALLY RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  77  93  71 /  10  20  60  60
FSM   93  75  93  73 /  10  20  40  60
MLC   92  75  92  74 /  10  20  30  60
BVO   95  75  91  67 /  10  20  60  50
FYV   88  73  87  68 /  20  30  60  60
BYV   89  73  86  69 /  30  30  60  60
MKO   90  73  90  71 /  10  20  50  60
MIO   93  75  92  68 /  20  30  60  50
F10   91  75  89  71 /  10  20  40  60
HHW   92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12



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