Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 150322
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
922 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Freezing Rain Advisory was previously extended through tonight,
and current trends support keeping the Advisory along with the Ice
Storm Warning configuration as they are. Additional light to
moderate precip has begun expanding across east central OK and
will continue to expand northeast over the next few hours, a
trend supported by most hi-res models along with the 00z NAM.
Surface temps are not likely to change much overnight, though an
overall rise of a degree or so continues to be shown in most model
guidance. Still this supports additional icing in many areas north
of I-44 with heaviest accretions remaining near the Kansas border
where sfc temps should remain a tad lower. It is likely that some
areas will not warm above the freezing mark until after the
warning expiration time of 12z...however signal has remained
consistent that precip should decrease by that time and for the
moment, feel that the current expiration time will suffice.
Updated products have already been sent.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 542 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through much of the
forecast period with some improvement possible Sunday afternoon.
Precip chances will remain highest for NE OK with periods of FZRA
continuing through tonight for KBVO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Earlier update had removed the Ice Storm Warning for a few
counties in northeast OK and replaced with a Freezing Rain
advisory as 32F line has held steady from north of Pryor to Tulsa
to northern Creek county. Some additional light icing will occur
in these areas the remainder of the afternoon...with surface
temperatures expected to rise just a hair above freezing by this
evening.

A large area of freezing rain has blossomed across much of
western and northwestern OK...the eastern fringes of this activity
will impact areas northwest of I-44 this evening and into the
overnight hours. Latest high-res NAM solutions look just a touch
too warm with the surface temps in these areas...although the HRRR
appears to have a reasonable handle. Plan on keeping the Ice Storm
warning going for Pawnee...Osage...Washington...Nowata and Craig
counties...with the most significant icing occurring in parts of
Osage county near the KS border. Obviously this is very
temperature dependent...and if any warming occurs then icing will
decrease accordingly.

Surface temperatures will warm above freezing by Sunday
morning...in advance of a strong upper cyclone moving into west
TX. Rapid moisture return ahead of this system will bring a very
good chance of widespread showers and a few storms to the area
mainly Sunday night into Monday. Mass synoptic fields suggests
that the primary warm sector remains most to our south for this
event...so overall chances of thunder and any severe storms will
be quite limited.

The upper pattern remains quite active across the CONUS for next
week...although the better moisture should be shunted south.
Seasonal temperatures on Tuesday will be followed by a nice
warming trend the rest of the week. Have kept the extended portion
of the forecast dry for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  52  51  63 /  80  30  80  40
FSM   44  61  52  67 /  30  20  60  70
MLC   37  60  57  67 /  60  30  90  60
BVO   31  48  46  61 /  90  60  80  40
FYV   41  57  52  62 /  50  30  60  70
BYV   38  53  48  63 /  60  30  60  70
MKO   34  55  52  67 /  80  30  80  60
MIO   31  51  49  63 /  80  60  80  60
F10   33  55  54  65 /  80  40  80  50
HHW   46  64  56  68 /  20  20  90  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ058-060-061-
     064.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ054>057-059.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99


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