Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 270447
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms have developed across parts of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...although most of the activity
should remain north of the northwest Arkansas TAF sites and
gradually dissipate after 07-08z. More widespread MVFR and local
IFR conditions are expected to develop late tonight and into
Saturday. Significant severe thunderstorms expected to develop
shortly after 00Z along southward advancing cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 639 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Forecast was left largely intact for the evening. The main change
made was to insert some low thunder probs along a wsw-ene oriented
surface trough across east central into northeast oklahoma. Some
weak convergence has resulted in a band of agitated cu at times on
vis satellite along the surface trough. Some of the hi-res
guidance does suggest potential for some development. However,
warm temps aloft due to an expansive EML should keep coverage
isolated at best. Hail would be the main threat if a storm
develops.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 623 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR conditions currently for all sites...although expect MVFR
cigs and visibilities (along with areas of IFR) to develop
later tonight. An isolated thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled
out through the overnights hours...although the primary
development is expected toward 00-03Z...just beyone the scope
of this forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...

Currently a weak frontal boundary extends along the Interstate 44
corridor with dewpoints south of the boundary rising into the low
to mid 70s. Furthermore, 12z regional soundings sampled a broad
region of steep lapse rates with resultant high potential
instability across much of the forecast area. This instability is
currently capped and is expected to remain so through tonight. The
exception will be in vicinity of the aforementioned boundary late
tonight as upglide may be sufficient to realized a few
thunderstorms from far NE OK into far NW AR. Any storm which does
form will have potential to be strong.

The main severe weather focus will take shape during the day on
Saturday and continue through Saturday night. Data remain
consistent in developing extreme instability amidst strong deep
layer shear profiles. This environment will remain capped through
much of the day with convective initiation focusing on the cold
front and dryline boundaries. Furthermore a larger convective
complex passing across KS and western MO is likely to place an
outflow boundary into NE OK and far NW AR by late afternoon.
Placement and orientation of these boundaries will be instrumental
in convective placement and evolution, and will also be key in
what severe hazards are realized. A favored scenario is initial
supercellular development capable all severe hazards with a local
tornado threat especially in vicinity of any outflow boundary.
Storms may then evolve into broken LEWPs capable of destructive
winds. Regardless of the exact scenario, the environment will
favor significant severe weather potential which should be the
focus of any awareness messages. Outdoor venues and recreational
activities should understand the weather hazard potential and have
a severe weather safety plan.

Severe weather continues through Saturday night while progressing
from north to south with dry and cooler conditions Sunday and
Monday. The pattern transitions to that typical of early summer
by mid to late next week with increasing moisture amidst weak
flow and subtle forcing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  65  81 /  10  30  50   0
FSM   72  89  70  82 /  10  10  80  10
MLC   74  89  68  80 /  10  20  70  10
BVO   64  89  62  81 /  10  30  40   0
FYV   67  85  64  75 /  20  20  70  10
BYV   68  85  65  76 /  30  30  70  10
MKO   71  88  66  79 /  20  20  70  10
MIO   67  86  63  79 /  20  40  60   0
F10   70  89  66  79 /  20  20  70   0
HHW   73  88  71  81 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.