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000
FXUS64 KTSA 151712
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE TSTORMS THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE IS THE BIG UNCERTAINTY...WITH NO
FOCUSING BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK OR NO CAP IN PLACE...STORMS COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH CONSERVATIVE VCTS
MENTION...AND THEN RAMP IT UP IF A STORM LOOKS TO AFFECT A
TERMINAL. STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOST PART.
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST TODAY AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN OK/TX. THERE IS SOME DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM H85 TO H5
ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING...IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. A THETA-E
AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OK...WHERE SBCAPES ARE ON
THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE. THE FLOW AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL IN THE MORE SUSTAINED CELLS. ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK DUE TO A WEAK CAP
IN PLACE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. HAVE GONE WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KFSM WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COMBINED
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
STEEPEN AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S RETURNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  90  71  87 /  20  30  60  60
FSM   72  91  72  88 /  20  30  30  60
MLC   72  90  72  88 /  20  30  30  60
BVO   71  90  70  86 /  20  30  70  50
FYV   67  87  67  84 /  20  30  50  60
BYV   69  88  68  85 /  20  30  50  60
MKO   72  88  72  87 /  20  30  50  60
MIO   70  89  68  83 /  20  30  70  50
F10   73  89  73  87 /  20  30  60  60
HHW   72  90  72  90 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30