Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 120216
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
816 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Once again a quiet evening across E OK/NW AR. A wave is diving
southeast over the Midwest this evening. Since conditions in the
lower levels of the troposphere are dry and stable...the only
indication of this wave is the high clouds moving across the
region currently. A cold front will surge south tonight into
Friday in the wake of the system...so another cool but not
terrible day is in store for tomorrow.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Another cold front will cross the region over the next 15 hours
with the wind picking up from the north tomorrow.  Otherwise
no significant weather is expected.  Some mid and high clouds
will continue to stream over the area...but VFR conditions will
prevail.  There is a chance for a few stratocumulus clouds to
develop tomorrow...but even if some form...a ceiling is not expected
to develop.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move south across the forecast area Friday
giving us a glancing blow of a very cold airmass that will settle
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An upper level disturbance will
move across the area Sunday and Sunday night resulting in a
chance of rain. Temperatures may remain cold enough in the valleys
of northwest Arkansas for freezing rain, and adjacent parts of
northeast Oklahoma may be cold enough at the onset of
precipitation for a brief period of freezing rain. At this time,
ice accumulations do not look too significant, but this will need
to be monitored in the deeper valleys of northwest Arkansas where
the cold air will hang on the longest.

Once this system moves out, mild to warm air will overspread the
area for much of next week. By late next week, unseasonable
warmth appears likely, and would not be surprised to see the first
80 degree readings of the year show up before the end of the week
in parts of eastern Oklahoma.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  52  21  44 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   35  58  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  49  19  41 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   27  51  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  49  16  36 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   32  54  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   29  47  15  38 /   0   0   0   0
F10   34  55  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   37  65  31  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30


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