Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 071539
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
939 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
At mid morning...radar echoes continued to push northeast across
parts of Northeast Oklahoma. Low level drier air has kept most of
this activity from reaching the surface...though some isolated
snow flurries had been observed mainly north of U.S. Highway 412.
This was in response to an area of warm advection over Northeast
Oklahoma ahead of a weak mid level impulse moving into the Central
Plains and colder air surging southward across Kansas.

Through the day today...low level moisture is expected to lift
northward across the region...while the mid level impulse moves
through the Plains and the much colder airmass moves into the CWA.
The result will allow for isolated snow flurries to continue
across parts of Northeast Oklahoma into the afternoon hours...with
a chance of light snow near the Oklahoma Kansas border this
afternoon as the colder air moves in. Some light freezing drizzle
may also be possible late this afternoon between U.S. highway 412
and Interstate 40 as precip mixes within the colder airmass. Across
Northwest Arkansas...light rain and or light snow will be
possible this afternoon/evening. Over East Central into Southeast
Oklahoma...areas of light drizzle will be possible through this
afternoon as the colder air looks to move into these locations
this evening.

At this time...moisture within the dendritic growth zone remains
fairly limited over Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
which should keep any snowfall in the trace amounts to minor
accumulations possible. The greater potential of any accumulations
look to be near the Oklahoma Kansas border this afternoon and far
Northwest Arkansas Missouri border this evening.

Temperatures across Northeast Oklahoma should reach their forecast
highs of mid/upper 30s by the early afternoon hours before the
colder airmass begins to push in dropping temps into lower 30s by
late afternoon. Across Northwest Arkansas and Southeast
Oklahoma...a more diurnal temperature curve will be possible with
highs in the upper 30s in far Northwest Arkansas to the mid/upper
40s for Southeast Oklahoma.

After all the mentioned above...have adjusted hourly
temp/dewpoint/wx/wind grids for the morning update to account for
latest trends and observations. The rest of the forecast seems to
be handling well at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  19  33  14 /  30  20   0   0
FSM   43  27  37  18 /  20  30   0   0
MLC   46  24  35  15 /  20  20   0   0
BVO   38  16  32  10 /  40  20   0   0
FYV   39  19  31  11 /  30  30   0   0
BYV   38  19  30  14 /  40  30   0   0
MKO   41  21  34  15 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   37  17  31  11 /  50  30   0   0
F10   42  22  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   48  27  37  19 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20


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