Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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831
FXUS64 KTSA 250746
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
246 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The mid level ridge that has brought the hot and dry weather for
the past week is breaking down and shifting west, thanks in part
to a decent shortwave trough sliding across the Midwest and Great
Lakes. The concomitant synoptic cold front lies from northern
Missouri across central into southwest KS. Widely scattered storms
are occurring along and north of the front, with a larger area of
showers and storms out over the central High Plains. The guidance
differs as to how aggressively this convection pushes into NE
OK/NW AR later on this morning. The operational HRRR is by far the
most aggressive, but doesn`t not appear to be verifying well so
far this morning based on latest radar trends. The HRRRX and NAM
are in good agreement and are more bullish on making a good push
into the forecast area, and even the new 00z ECMWF is starting to
agree, backing off from its 12z run. All models agree that
scattered afternoon convection will occur from W AR into SE OK,
and most likely near the stalling synoptic front near the KS
border. Given the uncertainties in this forecast, confidence is
lower than usual, and thus I`m inclined to go more middle of the
road on pops. As for temps, if the convection doesn`t make an
aggressive push into NE OK, highs will likely top out in the mid
to upper 90s across much of eastern OK, yielding heat indices
right around the 105 degree range in some spots. However, citing
those same uncertainties regarding the convective forecast, I will
elect not to issue any heat headlines and will let dayshift
reevaluate.

The boundary will wash out and pops will drop off as we head
toward the middle part of the week. Temps will remain in the low
to mid 90s Tues/Wed.

The ECMWF has been consistent in developing NW flow over the
Plains for the latter part of the week as another decent shortwave
trough dives across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Seems like a good
bet that an MCS will organize to our north and west Wed night and
sweep through the region Thursday. Could see a repeat performance
Friday and Saturday as well. Pops will taper off as the weekend
comes to a close.

Mid level ridging will become reestablished over the central part
of the country going into next week...suggesting low precip
chances and a return to hotter weather is likely.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  76  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
FSM   94  75  94  76 /  40  30  20  10
MLC   97  74  94  74 /  30  30  20  10
BVO   92  70  94  71 /  40  20  20  10
FYV   91  70  91  71 /  40  20  20  10
BYV   90  70  91  70 /  50  20  20  10
MKO   96  75  94  74 /  40  30  20  10
MIO   91  73  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
F10   96  75  93  74 /  30  30  20  10
HHW   97  75  96  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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