Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 232310
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Brief MVFR vsbys in patchy fog possible again late tonight across
parts of NW AR...mainly KFYV. Otherwise VFR elements to prevail
through the TAF period across most sites. MVFR vsbys possible in
thunderstorms that will begin to increase in coverage late in the
TAF period across ERN OK as the next system approaches.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Moisture will continue to increase overnight and into tomorrow in
advance of the large upper level storm system set to move into the
central Rockies tonight. This will lead to overnight low
temperatures several degrees higher than the last couple of
nights. Thunderstorm potential should be largely limited to areas
along and northwest of Interstate 44, and especially west of
Highway 75 in this same region, through much of Saturday, with the
upper level jet positioned across the western High Plains.

A cold front will take shape as surface high pressure pushes into
the Plains between a bifurcation in the aforementioned upper
system, with one piece of energy in the Northern Plains and a
second in the southwestern United States. Enhanced shower and
thunderstorm potential will spread south and eastward as the front
moves through the region. Overall thunderstorm potential will
diminish behind the front, although rain chances should linger
well north of it in to next week. Heavy rain and isolated flooding
should be the main impacts from this system, due to the
unseasonably high moisture present ahead of the front. Severe
weather potential will be nonzero, but small due to fairly low
deep layer shear.

Much cooler temperatures than the area has seen the past week or
so will be felt behind the front, with a few days of below normal
conditions likely for the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23


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