Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 250859
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
359 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Morning radar loops show thunderstorm development continues to be focused
along the quasi-stationary front extending from northern MO
through western OK. This boundary will not move much today but
rather mark the main zone for new convection this afternoon.
Abundant low and mid level moisture is in place with 850mb
dewpoints in the 14-16c range. With the strong mid level flow of
35-50kt...potential exists for severe storms today across
portions of OK/KS. The main question today is if afternoon storms
are able to move into our northern counties later this afternoon
or early evening.

The 25/00z NAM had a decent placement of ongoing
precipitation as of 06-09z...and suggests most of our area will
remain dry through mid afternoon. Storms will likely fire along
the frontal zone in western portions of OK...and it`s possible
that a few of these may affect our NE OK counties similar to Wednesday
afternoon. If that happens...isolated severe storms can be
expected with damaging wind gusts and hail being the main threats.
Winds at the surface will become more southeasterly today...which
will increase dewpoints and likely keep the max temps a couple
degrees lower than yesterday. In addition...the shear profiles
across SE KS and northern OK will be favorable for supercells.
Most of these storms may be west or north of our area...but
something to keep an eye on this afternoon.

We have kept the pops higher on Friday which will depend on the
outcome of today`s storms. If the boundary in KS sags farther
south or if storms affect northeast OK tonight...then it will
impact what happens on Friday in terms of coverage of storms.

The upper level flow will begin to become more zonal by early next
week...perhaps lowering our chances for precipitation by Mon/Tue.
Until then...have maintained at least some chance for storms
through the weekend.

We will be watching the development of the tropical system near
Puerto Rico. It still appears too disorganized to be a named
tropical storm yet. Latest GFS/ECMWF bring track near the west
coast of FL by the middle of next week...but many more model runs
will offer more solutions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  72  91  72 /  20  30  40  20
FSM   95  75  90  73 /  20  20  50  20
MLC   95  72  89  71 /  10  10  50  20
BVO   96  69  90  68 /  30  40  40  20
FYV   91  70  85  68 /  20  20  50  20
BYV   89  71  84  69 /  20  20  50  20
MKO   95  72  88  70 /  20  20  50  20
MIO   95  70  88  70 /  30  40  50  20
F10   94  73  89  72 /  20  20  50  20
HHW   92  74  87  72 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....06



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