Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 231044
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
444 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12Z TAFs, VFR conditions, with clear skies and generally
light winds will prevail at all sites throughout the 24 hour
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015/
Warming trend is well underway with highs expected to be several
degrees warmer than yesterday. Moisture return will eventually
bring low rain chances back...but not until Wednesday. Introduced
drizzle mention Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The more significant rains will occur on the holiday and continue
into the following weekend. A deep positive tilt western CONUS
trough will help to draw rich moisture up from the south...with
PWs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Meanwhile...a strong and shallow
cold front will wedge its way south thru the Plains beneath SW
flow aloft...in response to ridging over western Canada. The
front will lift the plentiful moisture...producing widespread
locally heavy rains across the region. After a brief break late
Friday...another round of precip is expected over the
weekend...with a possible injection of moisture from a Pacific
tropical system in advance of the ejecting western CONUS trough.
The heavy rains thru the holiday weekend may lead to localized
Now to the thermal profiles...and the potential for some wintry
weather. The latest data has trended warmer at the surface with
the initial surge and first round of precip...suggesting that the
second round over the weekend will have a better chance at
producing a wintry mix...mainly across portion of NE OK and NW AR.
With the shallow nature to the front...some light icing remains
possible...with the best potential on Saturday.
The precip should come to an end by the latter part of the weekend
as the upper trough moves on by.