Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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004
FXUS64 KTSA 180439
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
MENTION ALONG/AHEAD OF FROPA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER EVENING AS THE AREA HAS REMAINED PRECIP FREE FOR
THE DURATION. BOUNDARY SEPARATING DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70S FROM DRIER AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN
OSAGE COUNTY AND NEAR THIS INTERFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE. WARM MOIST SECTOR OVER WESTERN OK
AND WESTERN AR REMAINS CAPPED AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE 00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS AS A SUBTLE
WAVER MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK
A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE AREA.  COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT FOG TOWARDS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
RESIDES.  WRF MODEL AN OUTLIER REGARDING PRECIP
AND POP SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DRIER
SHORT TERM HRRR LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT.

NEXT BIG RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT  WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SLUG WET WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





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