Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191000
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
400 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy southerly winds will help continue the warming trend over
the next couple days. A limited fire danger will also exist
despite a gradual increase in low level moisture. A strong storm
system will move into the central Plains Sunday, with a trailing
cold front moving across our area late Sunday afternoon and
evening. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the front, with a limited potential for strong to
severe wind gusts, mainly from southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas.

The airmass behind this system will be of Pacific origin, so
temperatures will continue to run above normal through much of
next week. Another storm system will affect the area at the end of
next week, just beyond the range of this forecast.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days, with
a blend of the warmer GFS MOS and cooler ECMWF preferred for high
temperatures over the weekend. This is in general agreement with
the experimental HRRR for highs Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  43  66  54 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   56  38  64  51 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   56  45  66  57 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   56  37  65  48 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   53  39  60  51 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   54  41  62  52 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   55  42  66  54 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   54  40  62  52 /   0   0  10  10
F10   56  44  66  55 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   54  42  66  56 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

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