Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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245
FXUS64 KTSA 212325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
625 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Warm and humid weather will be the rule over the next week. An
upper ridge will remain over the area Sunday resulting in one more
dry day before southwest upper flow develops ahead of the western
U.S. upper trough. This will result in increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances by late Sunday night and Monday. Periodic
convective chances will continue all week as impulses move out of
the western U.S. trough, with some severe weather potential each
day.

The greatest chance for widespread severe weather still looks to
be around Friday when the main upper system begins to move into
the Plains. This system will lift out well to our north and leave
the dryline and frontal boundary behind, so convective chances
will continue even into next weekend.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  66  81 /  10  10  20  50
FSM   61  83  63  82 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   63  82  67  81 /   0  10  10  40
BVO   58  81  65  80 /  10  10  20  50
FYV   55  79  59  78 /  10   0  10  40
BYV   55  78  58  79 /  10   0   0  40
MKO   61  82  65  80 /   0  10  10  40
MIO   58  82  64  80 /  10  10  10  50
F10   62  81  66  80 /   0  10  20  40
HHW   63  82  65  82 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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