Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 022011
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY A WIND-SHIFT LINE...WAS NOTED
ACROSS NE OK EXTENDING INTO WRN OK. SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (SURFACE-BASED CAPES 3500-4000
J/KG) ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK FRONT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SINKING SWD AND WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER S INTO SE OK AND WRN AR FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A RETREATING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE HIGH FORECAST PRECIP-WATER VALUES (AROUND 2
INCHES)...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  60  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  70  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  70  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  60  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  60  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  70  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18


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