Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 291542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  10  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12



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