Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 280448
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1148 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy fog again possible later tonight especially where
significant rain fell today, with localized IFR visibility possible
from 09-13z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail, with isolated
storms possible again Thursday. Coverage expected to be less and
will not include mention of TS at this time. Complex of storms
expected to impact parts of northeast OK toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 917 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Much of convective activity that developed this afternoon has
dissipated. Pulse severe (wind) in Benton County with the strongest
activity. Will hold onto very low pops much of the area overnight but
should be less activity around than past couple nights based on all
available rapid update high resolution convection allowing models.
Forecast was updated for current trends but overall few changes were
needed this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 629 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widely scattered thunderstorms continue, with heavy rain and
gusty winds possible at KRVS and KROG through about 01z, before
storms dissipate with loss of daytime heating. IFR visibility
likely within heaviest rain cores. Some fog again possible later
tonight especially where significant rain fell today. Otherwise
VFR conditions will prevail, with isolated storms possible again
Thursday. Coverage expected to be less and will not include
mention of TS at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed again this
afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with
more isolated activity across northeast Oklahoma. Most of this
activity will dissipate by around sunset, with the best chances of
overnight and early morning development being across southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

Convective coverage is expected to be a bit less Thursday
afternoon than it has been the past couple days, and this should
allow afternoon temperatures to be a bit warmer than today in most
places. An MCS is expected to develop over the high plains late
Thursday and Thursday evening, and increasing northwest flow aloft
will steer this complex towards and eventually into our area by
later Thursday night into Friday. At least a limited severe
weather risk will be present at this time, with damaging winds
being the main threat.

The potential exists for another MCS to affect parts of the area
late Friday night into Saturday, but this potential hinges on
airmass recovery following the initial MCS, so confidence is low
at this time. At least low rain chances will continue into Sunday
before an upper ridge builds back over the center of the country
bringing a return to hot weather will very little chance of any
rain by the early to middle part of next week.

Went a bit warmer than most guidance for high temperatures
Thursday, with guidance temperatures looking more reasonable the
other periods over the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  94  71  87 /  20  20  50  40
FSM   72  93  73  90 /  30  30  20  40
MLC   71  93  72  89 /  20  30  30  40
BVO   69  94  69  87 /  20  20  60  40
FYV   67  89  68  85 /  30  30  30  50
BYV   69  91  69  86 /  30  30  30  50
MKO   72  93  72  88 /  20  20  30  40
MIO   71  93  69  87 /  20  20  30  40
F10   72  92  72  88 /  20  20  30  40
HHW   73  92  72  92 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14


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