Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200456
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STALLED FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...
WHICH HAS BEEN REINFORCED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BY RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW.
AIR-MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES. ALL
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FLOODING A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. INCREASED
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES LIKELY. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS
THIS AREA...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES THE FURTHER EAST YOU
GO. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




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