Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 271738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1238 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GENERALLY VFR  THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH TRANSIENT
MID LEVEL CLOUD..HOWEVER RISK ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  RISK THUNDER PRIMARILY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD FROM KANSAS SINKING SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL REDUCE
SUN NORTH..AND LESSEN HEAT THREAT TULSA CREEK WAGONER
COUNTIES. HEAT HEADLINE RESCINDED THERE. A LOW CHANCE
THUNDER RETAINED THIS AFTERNOON  MAINLY NORTH OF I-40
WITH FRONT NEAR.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH ANY INFLUENCE FROM HEAVIER CONVECTION FROM
MID MORNING ACROSS NE OK...AND INTO WESTERN AR AND SE OK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...WITH MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT ALMOST ON OUR DOORSTEP.
DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FROM SEEING THE HEAT INDICES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. MOST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES
IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S. ONLY CHANGE TO THE HEAT
HEADLINES IS TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...EXCEPT FOR
TULSA COUNTY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE GREATEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

COOLER WEATHER AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AFFECT THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...COULD
FALL DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PERHAPS INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AFTER THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY RAINS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LARGELY
DRY...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  66  87 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   72  90  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
MLC   71  90  66  88 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   65  88  61  86 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   65  84  59  84 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   64  83  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   68  89  63  88 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   65  86  62  85 /  10   0   0   0
F10   70  89  65  88 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   75  92  68  89 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21





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