Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211711
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1211 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fog has pretty well dissipated across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas this morning. Current forecast is on
track for Today. Only made some minor changes to the
forecast for Today to reflect current trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of dense fog will persist through mid morning with the
greatest aviation impact being across far NW AR. Once the fog
lifts any ceilings are expected to remain VFR. Light fog is
possible again tonight thought not expected to be as dense as the
current morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure was developing over the Central United
States this morning in response to a longwave trof positioned west
of the Rocky Mountains. Across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...underneath the developing high pressure...mostly clear
skies were common over much of the CWA...while an area of mid
clouds had moved into parts of Eastern Oklahoma. Areas of dense
fog had developed this morning over locations with the mostly
clear skies...mainly east of Highway 75/Indian Nations Turnpike in
Eastern Oklahoma into parts of Northwest Arkansas. These
conditions will remain possible into the mid morning hours before
temp begin to warm. Thus...have issued a dense fog advisory for
these locations.

By this afternoon...the mid layer clouds should continue to push
through the northern half of the CWA with partly cloudy conditions
expected. With a little more sun today...temps today are expected
to be a little warmer with highs in the 70s to lower 80s from
north to south. These conditions should continue into Sunday as
the ridge axis moves across the Plains. Breezy southerly winds
should aid temperatures Sunday afternoon to be slightly warmer
compared to today. With the CWA under the influence of the ridge
of high pressure and the better areas of warm advection and a
stronger LLJ west of the CWA will continue with persistence in
keeping out any mention of precip through Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night through much of next week...the ridge of high
pressure is forecast to shift eastward and become positively
tilted as a low pressure trof remains over the Southwest United
States. This will allow for west to southwesterly upper level flow
to persist over the Southern Plains along with southerly surface
winds transporting moisture and warmer temperatures into Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. At the same time...a surface low
lee of the Rocky Mountains with a dryline extending southward
between the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and West Kansas/West
Oklahoma is forecast to remain nearly stationary through the week.

The combination of these features and an increasingly unstable
atmosphere over the CWA will create daily thunderstorm chances
through the upcoming week. At least a limited severe potential
will also be possible through the week over the CWA...though the
greater chances through mid week look to be closer to the dryline.
It continues to look like the greater thunderstorm and severe
potentials for the CWA could be late in the week as the area of
low pressure over the Southwest United States is progged to
finally lift into the Plains.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

$$

AVIATION...10



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