Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 141123
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR or below conditions will prevail this TAF period at all sites.
Freezing precip will affect all NE OK sites thru noon, persisting
at KBVO thru early Sunday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning...an area of rain and freezing rain was moving
across eastern Oklahoma with all rain in western Arkansas. The
surface freezing line extended from Ottawa through central
Delaware Co...and then southwest to near Okmulgee. This
precipitation is forming due to enhanced lift associated with a
mid-level shortwave as well as convergence along the 925mb front.
Ice accretion of 0.12" has been observed through 09z at the Tulsa
airport with 0.10" at KRVS. There are convective elements within
the precipitation with isolated lightning noted.

We have one more cold day in store with little temperature change
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Temperatures should
climb above freezing by mid afternoon across almost the entire
forecast area...and any additional precipitation would fall as
drizzle or light rain. The highest chance for continued icing
through mid afternoon will be near the KS/OK border and through
Osage/Pawnee counties...where latest model guidance suggests
another round of heavier precipitation could affect that area late
tonight into early Sunday morning. The very worst icing across the
region will be across portions of central KS/central OK where ice
accumulations may exceed a half inch.

By Sunday morning...all locations in the forecast area will rise
above freezing...ending the threat of ice. At that time...the
upper low now spinning off Baja...will be approaching far west TX.
A surface warm front will lift north across the area...with high
temperatures on Sunday in the 50s to near 60. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the Pacific cold
front...but storms should stay west of our area during the day
Sunday. A convective line of showers and possible embedded storms
will move across eastern Oklahoma late Sunday into Monday morning.

Wind fields on Monday will be quite strong...although instability
will be marginal for severe storms in our area. However...the
threat for strong storms will exist just to our south and east
Monday afternoon.

The rest of the week looks great...with warming temperatures into
the 60s/70s right into next weekend.

Corfidi/Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  34  50  50 /  80  60  30  80
FSM   44  44  60  53 /  60  30  20  60
MLC   38  38  61  56 /  50  40  30  80
BVO   33  32  47  47 /  80  80  60  80
FYV   42  42  57  52 /  80  50  30  60
BYV   40  39  54  48 /  80  50  30  60
MKO   37  37  56  52 /  70  50  30  70
MIO   33  33  50  48 /  80  80  60  80
F10   35  35  55  53 /  80  60  30  80
HHW   48  48  63  56 /  50  20  20  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ058-060>062-
     064>067.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ054>057-059.

AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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