Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 221057
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
457 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12Z TAFS, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
throughout the 24 hour forecast period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/
After the widespread hard freeze this morning...temps will modify
rather quickly over the next few days in response to temporary
deamplification of the upper flow pattern and corresponding
increase in downslope flow over the Plains. The upcoming holiday
may actually be the warmest day of the week ahead of the next
strong cold front to move into the region the following night.
By the middle of the week...the pattern amplifies again...with a
deep positive tilt upper trough in the west and SW flow over the
Plains downstream. The upstream ridging over western Canada will
allow cold air to come spilling south in advance of the upper
trough...with overrunning precipitation potentially creating a
messy scenario for the holiday weekend. As it looks now...a
strong modified arctic cold front is expected to plunge thru the
region Thanksgiving night. The latest data suggest surface temps
will get cold enough to require at least a mention of a wintry mix
by early Friday to the N and W of Tulsa and across much of NE OK
and NW AR by late Friday. The latest ECMWF even suggests that
after a brief break Friday night another round of precipitation
will lift into the region on Saturday. With the cold air more than
likely to be in place by then...more wintry precip would be
possible...again mainly for NE OK and NW AR. I will reiterate that
the devil is in the details...and these details will continue to
be refined in future forecasts as we are still several days out.
The surface freezing line forecast will be crucial...and very
difficult to predict at this juncture. Nevertheless...respect must
be given to the cold air and its potential to cause problems in
this type of upper air pattern.
Bottom line...since the Thanksgiving holiday is the busiest for
traveling...stay tuned to the latest forecast for details
regarding the weekend following the holiday.
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-002-010-