Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 310050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
750 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER RISK OF THUNDER
EASTERN OK TAF SITES KBVO KTUL KRVS KMLC MAINLY AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY. TSRA WITHHELD FROM TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT SPECIFIC SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE FRONTAL / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES SUFFICIENTLY WITH LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RENEWED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEARER THE EVENTUAL SFC BOUNDARY LOCATION. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME MORE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED BY SATURDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO WESTERN AR.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN THE DRIER DEWPOINT AIR.

THE BOUNDARY DOES LOSE DEFINITION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
THE LATEST DATA IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED PATTERN
WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND KEEPING THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES EFFECTING THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES.
TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  71  92 /  20  30  10  10
FSM   72  93  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   72  91  69  92 /  20  30   0  10
BVO   69  91  67  91 /  20  30  10  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   66  91  66  91 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   72  88  69  92 /  20  20   0  10
MIO   69  91  68  92 /  10  10   0  10
F10   72  89  71  90 /  20  30   0  10
HHW   73  94  70  95 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21


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