Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290916
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  40  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  40  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  40  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  20  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21


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