Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 042351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INITIAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...IMPROVING THIS EVENING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TAF SITES VFR BY 06Z...REMAINING
VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING WINTER STORM PRETTY MUCH GOING ACCORDING TO EXPECTATIONS
SO FAR...WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR AND THE
RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH PERHAPS
PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEING
THE LONE HOLDOUTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS
INDICATE THAT EVEN AREAS ABOVE FREEZING IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SLEET AND SNOW...EFFECTIVELY SKIPPING THE
FREEZING RAIN PHASE TO THIS POINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ALSO
SHORT RANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTS/PROBABILITIES ARE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS. ONE OF THE RELATIVELY BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING IS TO SPEED THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER COLD
AIR AND THE FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TRANSITION...LEADING TO LOWER
ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST BAND...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS COULD PLACE AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SLEET/SNOW FROM HUGO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD POTEAU...FORT
SMITH...AND OZARK INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO LAST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THIS
REGION...WILL EXTEND THE WARNING IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL 4 AM.

ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
REGION OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH LARGER
MOISTURE LOCKED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED
TO FIZZLE AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST...BUT STILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW BETWEEN
I-44 AND I-40 THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.

THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS US. THEREAFTER...A DRY FORECAST
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
WARMUP WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FRIDAY WITH 50S AND 60S EXPECTED FOR
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOME SPOTS IN MAY HIT 70 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   16  35  19  47 /  50   0   0   0
FSM   21  35  20  45 /  90  10   0   0
MLC   20  35  19  45 / 100  10   0   0
BVO   13  34  16  48 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   15  30  14  42 /  80   0   0   0
BYV   14  29  13  42 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   18  35  19  46 /  70   0   0   0
MIO   14  31  17  44 /  40   0   0   0
F10   17  35  20  45 /  70   0   0   0
HHW   23  38  21  44 / 100  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21




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