Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 300911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14






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