Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 140820
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
320 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast challenges abound in this unseasonably complicated August
forecast. An MCS developed over the high Plains and eventually
merged with other convection lifting north from the TX South
Plains. The system now has an MCV located over far SW OK moving
east. A broad precip shield with embedded storms is moving east
across southern OK. It`s not entirely clear whether this precip
shield will stay intact, or there will be new storm development in
advance of it across eastern OK. For the forecast over the next 24
hours, a blend of the HRRR and Hi-Res ARW was used, which were in
fairly good agreement and mainly differed on timing. As such, I
attempted to time and place the MCV and its resultant uptick in
convection near and ahead of the feature today and into the
evening. Once this system clears the area by Tuesday midday, there
should be a lull in the action Tuesday afternoon and into the
evening.

Storm chances will increase yet again by Wednesday in advance of
another frontal boundary, with the best chances expected Wednesday
night. The ECMWF suggests potential for a night time MCS Thursday
night and possibly another on Friday night in persistent NW flow.

Mid level height rises over the weekend will likely put an end to
this regime. Despite the fact that forecast highs are still
expected to be slightly below average, high levels of humidity
with temps climbing back into the low 90s will still feel quite
hot and humid.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  72  90  76 /  50  50  30  30
FSM   86  72  91  75 /  60  60  40  10
MLC   86  74  90  76 /  60  40  20  10
BVO   87  70  88  74 /  30  50  30  30
FYV   83  69  85  72 /  40  60  50  10
BYV   85  68  85  71 /  20  60  60  10
MKO   83  71  89  74 /  60  50  40  10
MIO   86  69  86  74 /  20  50  60  10
F10   84  72  89  74 /  60  40  20  20
HHW   87  74  91  75 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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