Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 301608
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1008 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast for Today is on track. No changes expected at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 524 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Westerly
winds will gust over 20 knots at times late this morning and this
afternoon, with the winds diminishing around sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Deep upper low continues to spin across the upper Midwest this
morning as 130kt jet max rounds the base of upper trough. Upper
level storm system which will affect our area this weekend has
moved on shore into the Pacific NW with surface cold front east of
us in the lower MS valley.

The next two days will be dry...before rain chances arrive for the
weekend. Although temps will be in the 50s today...it will be
quite dry so RH values will fall to around 20-25 percent across
east central OK with stronger surface winds /10-20 mph with gusts
to 25 mph possible/. This will raise fire weather concerns
especially in areas which received the lower amounts of rain. The
OK mesonet shows most counties in NE OK have had less than a half
inch of rain over at least the last 2 weeks. In fact...Miami,
Foraker, and Bristow are examples of sites with less than 0.10"
of rain over the past 14 days.

Thursday will be warmer...but RH values will be lower with lighter
winds. By Friday...cutoff upper low will be located across
southern AZ with southwesterly flow aloft supporting widespread
precipitation spreading across OK through the day. Rain will
begin by early Saturday morning if not late Friday. There will be
snow with this system...but it will be well west of our area - in
the TX panhandle and higher elevations of NM. As of this model
cycle...it appears Sunday will be dry with more rain chances on
Monday as upper low moves by.

Extended models differ on the details...but they all agree that a
large chunk of arctic air will move south across the northern
high Plains and Rockies by mid week. This will set the stages for
possible winter precip events by the end of next week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10



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