Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 201736
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front currently from far NW AR through east central OK and
will continue southward through KFSM/KMLC by late afternoon.
Scattered light precip will remain in vicinity of the front
through afternoon w/ ceilings lowest in vicinity of the frontal
zone. Convection expands north of the front tonight becoming
widespread with locally heavy rainfall. All terminals are expected
to experience flight impacts from thunderstorms and/or low
ceilings late tonight through Friday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1051 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently just south of Interstate 44 continues to make
steady progress southward supported by a broad region of pressure
rises. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms also continue
along and just ahead of the boundary and this trend will likely
continue into early afternoon w/ a gradual decrease in coverage as
the low level jet weakens. Instability will build south of the
boundary this afternoon however sfc based development is not
likely as not obvious sources of stronger lift are present. The
more likely scenario is convection again blossoms this evening
north of the sfc front as upglide begins to intensify with
widespread heavy rains expected overnight.
Updated forecast adjusted hourly temp trends north of the front
along with accounting for radar trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  55  63  47 /  50 100 100  70
FSM   80  63  78  51 /  60  60  90  90
MLC   77  61  78  49 /  30  60  70  80
BVO   66  53  57  46 /  20 100 100  80
FYV   72  57  67  47 /  90  90 100  90
BYV   73  55  59  46 /  80  90 100 100
MKO   74  59  71  49 /  90  90 100  90
MIO   68  53  56  45 /  20 100 100  90
F10   74  59  68  48 /  70  90  90  80
HHW   78  63  80  51 /  20  20  30  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Friday evening for
     OKZ054>070.

AR...Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Friday evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07


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