Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 142151
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
351 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The latest shortwave trough continues to exit western Arkansas
this afternoon as weak radar echoes approach the Mississippi
Valley. Clouds associated with this system are beginning to clear
OK. Upstream, water vapor imagery shows the next storm system
digging strongly across the Prairie Provinces of Canada. This
energy is expected to close off an upper low west of the Great
Lakes Monday helping drive more Arctic air well southward into the
U.S. This will result in continued well below normal temperatures
to start the new work week along with dangerous cold and wind
chills through at least Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of precip to develop along the front and in
advance of the digging jet across central KS after midnight
tonight then drop southward toward northeast OK and northwest
Arkansas through the late morning. Dewpoints ahead of the front
will climb back into the 20s which will help increase potential
for near surface saturation and precip reaching the surface. A
brief window exists for some frontal forcing combined with large
scale lift to support a band of accumulating snow across far
northwest OK through southern MO and northern AR after daybreak.
Drier air will quickly move in to limit overall snow potential but
have placed a stripe of near .5 to 1.5 inch amounts from Ponca
City to Bentonville. Some light snow or flurries will be possible
just south of there but little to no accumulation is expected.
With temps starting out close to freezing, impacts may be delayed
until later in the morning as the colder air arrives and temps
drop into the mid 20s. With some more time to assess exactly how
far south the heaviest snow will reach will allow the next shift
to determine the location and timing for any advisories.

Further south as the front approaches the
Red River another band of mixed precipitation is expected to
develop late in the afternoon and early evening as isentropic lift
occurs. Precipitation could start as freezing rain or sleet until
the shallow warm layer is removed with the deepening Arctic
airmass. However, the main impacts from snow or ice are expected
to remain well south into the Arklatex.

Considerable mid and high level moisture will continue overnight
Monday until the axis of the upper trough begins to swing through.
Enough clearing should occur combined with strong cold advection
to help drop overnight lows into the single digits and teens
Tuesday morning. Surface winds in excess of 10 kt will drop wind
chills into the solid advisory range before the gradient relaxes
and the center of the surface high begins to arrive late in the
afternoon. With mostly clear skies and light winds another more
widespread single digit low morning will be realized Wednesday.
The upper level pattern will deamplify through the remainder of
the week as split flow attempts to develop as result of several
strong storms pushing in from the Pacific. This pattern change
will bring another opportunity for precipitation next weekend with
the potential for improved moisture return and fairly widespread
rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  32   6  20 /  20  30   0   0
FSM   29  40  12  24 /   0  10  20   0
MLC   29  40  11  24 /   0  10  20   0
BVO   27  31   3  18 /  40  50   0   0
FYV   29  32   4  18 /  10  20  10   0
BYV   28  32   3  17 /  30  40  10   0
MKO   28  34   6  20 /   0  10  10   0
MIO   25  30   1  16 /  40  60   0   0
F10   29  35   9  22 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   31  47  16  26 /   0  20  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....24



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