Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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614
FXUS64 KTSA 260450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1150 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will develop at all sites between 08-10Z and
continue into the afternoon before lifting to VFR by late
afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will affect the
area beginning around 23Z, with ceilings and visibilities being
greatly reduced within storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A closed low pressure system was moving across the Central Rocky
Mountains this evening with a cold front extending southwest...a
warm front extending east across Kansas and a dryline line over
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into Southwest Texas. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...southerly winds continued to
transport low level moisture into the region while skies ranged
from mostly clear to mostly cloudy. The cap had kept any
shower/thunderstorm activity from developing across CWA late this
afternoon/this evening.

Overnight...the closed low will continue to shift eastward to the
lee of the Rocky Mountains by Tuesday morning...with the
fronts/dryline remaining nearly stationary. Increasing warm air
advection and a low level jet interacting with the pooling
moisture near the warm front will allow for the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to be possible late tonight. Latest
short term models...Rap/Hrrr/Local in-house models... indicate
that the majority of any developing precip should remain north of
the CWA...though it could be close enough and will leave the small
pops in for the 06-12z time frame tonight.

The continued southerly flow and increasing moisture will again
aid in low level ceilings developing across the CWA late tonight
into Tuesday morning. Thus...these conditions should keep lows
tonight slightly warmer than last night with most locations
holding in the 60s. Evening update will be to tweak
pop/sky/temp/dewpoint/wind grids for tonight based on the
mentioned above and current trends. Rest of the forecast seems to
be handling well at this time.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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