544
FXUS64 KTSA 291913
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
213 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A few showers are bubbling across portions of southeast Oklahoma
in the vicinity of the front that remains stretched across far
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This activity should
shift eastward before sunset along with the movement of an upper
level disturbance. Otherwise, expect a seasonably cool night,
given the influence of surface high pressure in the area. Patchy
fog will be possible once again late tonight and into tomorrow
morning in parts of southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas,
considering the position of the surface ridge axis tonight and
existing surface moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Gusty south to southwest winds will develop tomorrow as the
surface high shifts east and a low pressure system approaches from
the west. Expect above normal temperatures tomorrow. The front
associated with the low pressure will approach the Oklahoma border
tomorrow afternoon and evening, providing a potential focus for
thunderstorms in parts of northeast Oklahoma late afternoon and
evening. Ample instability is forecast northwest of I-44 by mid
to late afternoon, although a cap may hinder development this far
south during the afternoon. An expected thunderstorm complex in
Kansas may drop southward into parts of northeast Oklahoma,
especially toward Wednesday morning hence slightly higher POPs in
the evening and overnight, extending into Wednesday morning as
well. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop well to the west
along the dryline tomorrow afternoon and evening, but are likely
to diminish before reaching eastern Oklahoma. Into Wednesday and
Wednesday night, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms
may develop along the front near the Kansas border and also in
southeast Oklahoma in response to a weak disturbance and
increasing theta-e advection.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms remain on track for
Thursday and into Thursday night in advance of a cold front moving
through the area. Heavy rain appears likely with these storms
given the forecast precipitable water values, with already
saturated grounds favoring potential for flooding. A Flood Watch
may be needed in the next day or two if these signals continue. In
addition to the heavy rain and flooding potential, severe weather
may accompany them as well, with forecast instability favoring
portions of southeast Oklahoma.

Uncertainty exists regarding whether the front will completely
clear the area or not, leading to low shower and thunderstorm
chances persisting into Friday. The front should lift northward
Friday night and into Saturday, bringing additional showers and
thunderstorms. A repeat of the above may occur Sunday and into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Initial MVFR cigs at KMLC and KFYV will scatter out within
the first hour or two of the valid period. Thereafter at
those sites and at the remaining sites through the entire
period, VFR TAF elements will prevail

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  86  64  84 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   58  87  62  85 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   58  86  65  81 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   52  86  60  84 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   53  84  61  82 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   53  83  60  84 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   55  84  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   53  82  61  83 /   0   0  30  20
F10   56  84  63  83 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   58  82  62  83 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23