Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 151125
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Pilots planning on flying across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas will need to plan for IFR or below conditions thru the
day today. Saturated low level conditions will not change much
until early Monday when Pacific front clears the moisture out fm W
to E. Southeast winds tonight may begin to gust over 15 kts as a
low pressure system approaches.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper low just
south of AZ with abundant lightning occurring in west TX in the
subfreezing airmass. Surface freezing line extended from south of
Lubbock to Norman to Bartlesville. Will extend ice storm warning
until 9am for Pawnee, Osage and Washington counties in NE
Oklahoma as light freezing rain continues. Will cancel freezing
rain advisory for the other NE OK counties as temperatures have
risen above freezing and the freezing line will continue its push
to the northwest. A dense fog advisory is in effect for far
southeast OK until 10am.

Today...areas of light rain/low clouds will continue across the
region. Surface front located across south central TX will lift
north as a warm front and be located along the Red River by
tonight. This will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 40s/50s
this afternoon with temperatures rising through the overnight
hours in response to the moisture return. Upper level forcing
associated with SW storm system increases tonight...with
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms possible through
early Monday morning.

The true warm sector remains just south of our forecast
area...but not too far away. Although instability isn`t overly
impressive across SE Oklahoma...the strong wind fields and steep
lapse rates would support a few strong storms moving into the area
by tonight with the main threat of strong wind gusts. The 15/00z
observed sounding from Amarillo sampled the steep lapse rate
environment with 500mb temps near -16c which was more than
sufficient for lightning last night.

Precipitation will come to an end by Monday afternoon across the
area...with finally some clearing skies and some warm days ahead.

Corfidi

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  45  63  35 /  30  90  20   0
FSM   57  52  69  42 /  20  70  70  10
MLC   56  56  67  36 /  30  80  50   0
BVO   42  42  61  32 /  60  90  30   0
FYV   55  52  63  37 /  30  70  70  10
BYV   53  47  64  39 /  30  60  70  10
MKO   52  51  67  36 /  30  80  50   0
MIO   45  45  62  36 /  60  80  60  10
F10   49  49  63  35 /  30  90  20   0
HHW   60  60  67  41 /  30  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ049-053-
     076.

     Ice Storm Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ054-055-059.

AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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