Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 170752
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
252 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Band of showers/thunderstorms continues to make progress into the
eastern fringes of our forecast area early this morning. Leading
edge of convection has produced sporadic 40-55 mph
gusts...although expect a gradual decrease in storm intensity over
the next several hours as convection moves into more stable air.
This activity will weaken further by late morning into far eastern
OK/western AR...with only slight chance PoPs remaining in the
afternoon forecast across western AR.

South to southwest winds will push wind advisory criteria across
parts of northeast OK...although will hold off on any headlines at
this time. Day shift can monitor morning conditions and issue if
necessary.

The dryline should temporarily move through a large portion of
eastern OK this afternoon before retreating west overnight as
breezy south winds persist. Thursday should remain convection free
as the dryline retreats farther west to near the TX
panhandle/western OK border. Storms are expected to develop in
this area by late afternoon/early evening...with upscale growth
into the overnight hours as storms move into parts of eastern OK.
Severe weather will be a possibility with this activity.

The active pattern will continue into late week as a secondary
upper wave swings around the primary central Rockies cyclone. This
will result in yet another round of dryline convection moving east
into the area late Friday into Friday night...with storms
lingering into at least Saturday night before the synoptic front
finally shifts southeast of the region. Severe weather along with
heavy rainfall will be possible for much of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  68  87  69 /  20  10  10  50
FSM   87  69  89  70 /  40  10  10  30
MLC   87  68  88  70 /  40  10  10  50
BVO   85  63  86  66 /  20  10  10  60
FYV   82  63  83  65 /  40  10  10  40
BYV   82  65  84  66 /  20  10  10  40
MKO   86  66  87  68 /  50  10  10  50
MIO   85  63  86  66 /  50  10  10  60
F10   86  68  86  68 /  20  10  10  50
HHW   86  70  87  70 /  50  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18



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