Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 122326
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Much of the area will see zonal flow aloft this evening with the
passage of a shortwave trough. This disturbance may or may not
produce a thunderstorm or two across the far northeast OK corner and
far northwest AR corner late this evening. Some models even show an
isolated storm or two trek from west to east across the I-40
corridor after midnight tonight. However, the HRRR and the RAP
remained dry as low level moisture appears to remain limited until
later tomorrow. Also, a cap appears to remain in place around H8.
Due to the low confidence have reduced NBM PoPs below 15 for this
area.

Tomorrow is looking mostly dry as far as precipitation goes. Tds
will be on the rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow
afternoon as a leeside low develops over the OK Panhandle. Surface
winds should pick back up into the 15 to 20 mph range in the
afternoon as the pressure gradient steepens with the approaching
low. Moisture advection is progged to occur throughout the column
with the approaching upper level trough and associated southwest
flow aloft. Chances return after 7 PM tomorrow evening with 20 to 30
PoPs int the western FA with a psuedo dryline forming. Thunderstorms
may become strong to severe as well with this set up with the
possiblity of large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are not
expected with these storms. However, the chances are not nil. Later
into tomorrow night 30 PoPs shift east into far eastern OK and
western AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The active weather pattern with daily thunderstorm chances will
continue into Thursday across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Severe thunderstorms will once again be possible during
the late afternoon through the evening hours. Large hail and
damaging winds look to be the primary hazards, but a tornado cannot
be ruled out. Cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend into
early next week with highs right around average.

On Thursday morning, model guidance continues to show a broad H500
trough across much of the central CONUS extending westward towards
the Rockies. The center of the H500 low is forecast to be near the
southern tip of Nevada by late Thursday with southwesterly flow
across the CWA. Southerly surface winds should allow plenty of
moisture to remain across portions of the area, with an emphasis on
areas southeast of Interstate 44, which should remain to the east of
a dryline during the afternoon hours. Lift provided by the surface
boundary and a shortwave trough should be enough to generate another
round of showers and thunderstorms. The 12/12z LREF probabilities
are showing a 70 percent or higher chance for CAPE values to reach
or exceed 1500 J/kg during the afternoon into early evening hours.
If thunderstorms form in this favorable environment, they could
become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. The potential for a tornado is low at this time, but cannot
be ruled out. Additionally, PWAT values around 1.25 inches are
expected which would bring a threat for heavy rainfall with any
storms that form as well. Some storms may linger across the
southeastern portion of the CWA through the overnight hours before a
southward moving cold front pushes the storms east of the
region early on Friday.

Cooler and more stable air will move in behind the cold front on
Friday through early next week across the region. There is a low end
potential for some showers for southeastern Oklahoma on Friday and
Saturday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible but severe weather
appears unlikely at this time. Cooler, near average, highs are
expected this weekend into early next week with temperatures in the
upper 50s to 60s. A secondary cold front moves through on Sunday
which will bring in a bit cooler air for Monday and a few locations
may even drop down to freezing on Monday and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will have the potential (20% chance) to impact
KXNA and KROG during the first couple of hours of the valid period
this evening. Added a VCTS to these TAFs to reflect this potential.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated until around 12z when MVFR
ceilings are expected to start affecting area sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  78  62  80 /  10  10  30  50
FSM   56  77  63  81 /  10  10  40  70
MLC   59  77  63  79 /  10   0  20  60
BVO   47  79  57  80 /   0  10  30  30
FYV   54  75  58  79 /  10  10  40  60
BYV   56  76  60  79 /  20  10  30  50
MKO   56  76  62  79 /  10  10  30  60
MIO   54  77  60  77 /  10  10  30  50
F10   58  77  62  78 /  10  10  20  60
HHW   59  75  63  79 /  10  10  30  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10


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