Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 230907
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VERY ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS WITH WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND ALSO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...LARGE AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW EXTENDS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. HEAVIEST RAINS ARE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
POSITION OF THE STRONGEST LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STILL
SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL IN PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING THOUGH. LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
THE SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE TO THE EAST ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECPITATION SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE
IMMEDIATELY BENEATH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WINDOW OF
LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TRAVEL IMPACTS...ALTHOUGH ANYONE PLANNING ON VENTURING TO
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS PROBABLY
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON FORECASTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOTH FIRE STARTS
AND FOR RAPID SPREAD OF ANY FIRES. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER DAY.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FROM HERE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE. THE ECMWF STILL FAVORS A DEEPER
TROUGH...WITH A LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON SATURDAY...WHILE
THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN IS
INBETWEEN BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. WITH COLDER AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SOME WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FAVORING MORE
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS THAN THE OTHERS AS ITS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDS WELL INTO THE COLDER AIR RATHER THAN
JUST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
/SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE RANGE/ DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES...WITH A MESS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES PER A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. PROBABLY GOES
WITHOUT SAYING THAT ONE SHOULD EXPECT FUTURE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL SUITE IS HANDLING
THIS SYSTEM NO BETTER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL THAN THE GFS. THIS ONE
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH THAT IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...IT IS LIKELY TO
BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  33  42  30 /  10  30  20   0
FSM   48  36  43  30 /  40  20  20  10
MLC   50  35  43  31 /  30  20  20   0
BVO   46  33  41  26 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   47  32  38  27 /  30  30  30  10
BYV   48  32  38  28 /  20  20  40  10
MKO   49  34  42  29 /  20  30  20   0
MIO   45  33  39  27 /  10  30  40  10
F10   49  33  42  30 /  20  30  20   0
HHW   50  35  45  30 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22





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