Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241055 CCA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU THE FCST PD AS HI PRES ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO 15KTS ASIDE FROM A FEW OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ACRS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY OVER THE CWA AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
HIGHS WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN IN THE RANGE OF AROUND 100 TO
105 DEGREES. A FEW SPOTS MIGHT REACH THE 105 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH LIMITED EXPECTED
COVERAGE/TIME LENGTH HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITOR DURING THE DAY TO SEE IF CRITERIA
TRIES TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEADLINES NEEDED.

THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND PUSH INTO THE PLAINS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES FOR
TIMING/LOCATION/STRENGTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER SOLUTION PUSHING THE FRONT
INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE GFS MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WILL USE A MODEL BLEND
ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY PRECIP CHANCES
BECOMING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  76 100  78 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   99  74  99  76 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  77 /   0   0   0  10
BVO  101  72 101  73 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   96  70  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   96  70  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   98  73  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   98  74  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







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