Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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116
FXUS64 KTSA 221747
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1247 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Increasing mid and high level clouds will continue across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through the afternoon as a
shortwave approaches from the west. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will become possible during the afternoon hours for
Northeast Oklahoma and spread across the CWA through the evening
hours. Brief periods of MVFR conditions will be possible within
any thunderstorm activity. Scattered rain showers will remain
possible into the overnight hours before a cold front moves
through the region. Behind the cold front...MVFR and possible IFR
conditions continue to look possible late tonight into the morning
hours Tuesday over the region.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1017 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A lead shortwave was positioned over far Southeast
Colorado...Southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles at
mid morning today. This wave was ahead of a main trof
axis...associated with a parent closed low over Southern
Ontario...dropping southeast through the Northern Rocky
Mountains/Northern High Plains. Across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...cloud cover with the lead wave was moving
over Northeast Oklahoma while mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
were common for the rest of the CWA.

Through this afternoon...the lead shortwave will shift east
southeast into Western Oklahoma as the main trof axis continues
to drop southeast across the central CONUS. In
response...scattered rain showers along with the potential for
isolated thunder is forecast to push into Northeast Oklahoma
during the afternoon hours and across the rest of the CWA
overnight tonight. Instability continues to be marginal which
should continue to limit severe potentials. With the precip
chances expecting to hold off until the afternoon hours...this
should help for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s for
the CWA before cloud cover spreads back over the region.

Thus for the morning update...have added minor tweaks to
pops/wx/temps/winds and adjusted cloud cover to account for
latest trends and observations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  69  49  69 /  50  40  10  10
FSM   59  73  52  69 /  40  50  20  10
MLC   57  71  50  71 /  50  50  10  10
BVO   53  69  47  68 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   54  68  47  64 /  40  50  20  10
BYV   54  68  48  63 /  40  50  20  10
MKO   56  69  49  68 /  50  50  10  10
MIO   54  68  47  66 /  50  40  10  10
F10   57  69  49  69 /  50  40  10   0
HHW   58  71  51  73 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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