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000
FXUS64 KTSA 190506
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTVITY MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE NEAR OR PAST OUR OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
BY 06Z. HOWEVER... HAVE CARRIED VCTS IN OKLAHOMA TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY THAT IS
LIKEY TO PERSIST. ALSO HAVE LLWS AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT DUE TO
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH SURFACE WINDS DROPPING OFF. STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE NIGHT TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. STORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND HAVE BEEN SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF AFFECTING NORTHEAST OK LATER. THE STORMS IN
THIS REGION HAVE BEEN MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT...AND THUS TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS GREATLY REDUCED. THE STORM NEAR EL RENO LIKELY FORMED
ON OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY...OR
NEW ACTIVITY FORMED FROM OUTFLOW...WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS NORTH
AND EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS MAY BE
MAINTAINED AWHILE AFTER DARK BY THE LLJ. AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. THE
HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL WEAKEN THE FARTHER EAST
THEY TRAVEL AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING AND INTO THE STRONGER
CAP. DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE BIG
SEVERE WEATHER DAYS FOR ERN OK AND NW AR.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06