Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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856
FXUS64 KTSA 300247
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
947 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Instability has remained somewhat limited through the evening,
and as such, organized sustained updrafts have been hard to come
by. Over the past hour, scattered convection has developed ahead
of the cold front, which as of 930 PM had pushed a little east of
I49. Severe weather threat is very limited with this activity as
it shifts east of the forecast area over the next hour or so. Most
of the Tornado Watch was cleared earlier, and expect last
remaining counties to be removed by 11PM. Some wrap around showers
associated with upper low moving across eastern KS could affect
parts of northeast OK later tonight, with breezy W-SW winds
persisting through the night in many areas. Updated products have
already been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will develop late tonight and early Thursday and
will persist through the day Thursday. A few patches of light
rain may occur Thursday in northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas, but the chances are too low at any one site to include
in the TAF. West winds will occasionally gust over 20 knots during
the day Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Surface low near the Oklahoma/Kansas border southwest of Wichita
will move northeast overnight. Weak dryline/cold front is moving
across northeast Oklahoma at this time, and the potential still
exists for a few strong to severe storms east of this boundary
over the next few hours. However, the greatest coverage of severe
storms will likely be east of our forecast area.

Thursday will be a cloudy, raw day, with the possibility of a few
showers across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Temperatures will struggle to warm much at all during the day,
with some places likely not even reaching 50 degrees.

A rapid warmup begins Friday and continues Saturday ahead of the
next storm system that will result in another round of showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday into Monday. This system will take a
southerly track, so the severe weather risk in our area will be
quite low. Locally heavy rain will be possible however.

Another upper system will follow quickly on the heels of this one
Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture return will be limited, but the
strength of the system dictates at least a mention of showers and
thunderstorms around Tuesday night of next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days, with
the much colder NAM and ECMWF MOS numbers preferred for high
temperatures Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  53  41  70 /  20  30   0   0
FSM   50  57  43  75 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   46  58  42  77 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   45  52  37  67 /  30  50   0   0
FYV   44  49  38  69 /  20  40  10   0
BYV   47  50  42  67 /  40  40  10   0
MKO   47  54  41  72 /  10  20   0   0
MIO   46  50  41  65 /  20  50  10   0
F10   46  56  42  73 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   48  61  45  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99



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