Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 300450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LOWER
CLOUDS LIKELY AFTER 00Z WITH LOW END VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT
MLC/FSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR ACROSS SERN OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM.
LOCAL MESOANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN OK AS MOISTURE INCREASED INTO THAT REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SOME EXTENT. 00Z AREA RAOBS
REFLECTED QUITE A BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THAT REGION AND SINCE WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS...GOING TO CONTINUE THEM AS IS FOR NOW.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








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