Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220857
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO
CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. A FEW LOCATIONS YESTERDAY OBSERVED HEAT INDICES OF 105+
DEGREES...AND WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THUS...HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER PART OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MIX
THINGS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MIGHT HAVE TO BE
ADDED TO THE ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVEN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 DEGREES BEING
POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY ON LOCATION AND TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS BRINGS THE WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. USED A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION ALONG WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR DETAILS...AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE COOLER TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  78 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   96  74  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   96  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  100  74 100  73 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   94  74  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   97  74  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
F10   97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ060-OKZ061.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20





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