Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 011535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
935 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES IS
DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED THE WARM CONVEYOR FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM OUT OF OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...ENDING THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER E OK/NW AR. THE CONCOMITANT COLD FRONT
AND STRONG NW WINDS ARE SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS I
TYPE. WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 75 IN NE OK...SO THE GOING WIND ADVISORY
COVERS THIS WELL. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO
REMOVE ALL PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. STILL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR AWHILE
LONGER...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOW TOO LOW TO MENTION.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE... CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR LEVELS.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE STEADIER RAIN IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MILES AN HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A VINITA TO BRISTOW LINE.

AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY...A QUICK WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY
WITH MOST PLACES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MOST MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAY OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MODEL DISCREPANCIES PROHIBIT GOING WARMER THAN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AT THIS POINT IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IF THE WARMER
MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY...SOME 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT
WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  16  37  26 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   51  22  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   50  18  39  24 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   45  15  36  21 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   46  16  36  21 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   47  17  35  23 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   48  17  37  24 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   46  15  34  23 /  10  10   0   0
F10   47  17  37  25 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   54  22  42  25 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30



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