Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 240744
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
244 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The worst heat and humidity will continue for one more day, with
gradual improvement expected after today, as the much anticipated
westward shift of the upper level ridge commences. High
temperatures today will be very similar to those of the last two
days, with heat index values from 105 to 110 across most of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Much like yesterday,
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop across
parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, as an
upper level disturbance pushes from northeast to southwest through
Arkansas and into the ArkLaTex region on the periphery of the
ridge. Some of these may persist into the early to possibly mid
evening hours.

Attention then turns to the weak front approaching northern
portions of the forecast area tonight, and the potential for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of it. The front will likely stop
short of pushing into Oklahoma and Arkansas tonight, keeping most
of the thunderstorm activity well north of the Kansas and Missouri
borders. However, it appears that there is a small potential that
thunderstorms could persist long enough for them to make it into
parts of northeast Oklahoma near the Kansas border after midnight.
Current thinking is that both the NAM and GFS are overdone on
their southern push of this convection, and therefore, forecast
POPs will be below both of these guidance sources.

Monday`s forecast appears somewhat messy, with high temperatures
and any eventual need for additional Heat Advisories largely
dependent on how the Sunday night convection and any resulting
boundaries evolve. Will go a few degrees above guidance values for
high temperatures given the expectation of lower precipitation
coverage than currently forecast in the models. However, this
forecast is still one that is several degrees below the observed
temperatures for the past several days.

Temperatures very near seasonal normals will likely prevail from
Tuesday through the remainder of the work week and into the
weekend. The highest thunderstorm chances still appear to be
toward the latter part of the week, as northwest flow aloft
becomes fully established across the central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  79  96  76 /  10  20  30  30
FSM  100  78  94  75 /  30  20  40  30
MLC   99  75  95  74 /  20  20  30  30
BVO  101  71  95  71 /  10  30  30  30
FYV   95  71  91  71 /  30  20  40  30
BYV   96  73  91  71 /  30  20  40  30
MKO   99  76  95  75 /  20  20  30  30
MIO   96  73  93  73 /   0  30  40  30
F10  100  75  95  75 /  10  10  30  30
HHW  100  76  95  75 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22


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