Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 192045
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
245 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently located near a OKC/BVO line is expected to
stall by late afternoon/early evening and begin moving back north as
a warm front. A narrow corridor of modest surface based instability
has developed along/just ahead of boundary across northeast Oklahoma
with CAPE values running around 1000 J/KG. Any storms that develop
near front this afternoon/evening could be marginally severe with
wind/hail, including a limited tornado threat given the strong low
level wind fields present.

More widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected by
Tuesday morning as the cold front pushes back south into northeast
Oklahoma. Precipitable water values remain off the chart high for this
time of year with some areas already approaching 1.5 inches. Locally
heavy rainfall is expected as the front slowly progress through the
area during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night with widespread 2 to
4 inch rainfall totals expected with locally higher amounts possible.
Will therefore go ahead and issue a flash flood watch for portions
of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, generally south of
I-44, starting Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday
night. The heavier rainfall should begin to shift southeast of the
area Wednesday morning. Still a chance precipitation could
transition to freezing rain Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning however it appears at this time that accumulations should
remain relatively low. If temperatures drop below freezing quick
enough across far northwest Arkansas that area could have a little
better chance for some ice accumulations.

Very active weather pattern will continue for much of the week with
multiple chances for heavy rainfall. Another upper trough will dig
into the southern Rockies on Thursday with a strong upper jet
streak lifting northeast into the Central plains. Areas of rain
with embedded thunderstorms will spread into eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Frontal
boundary stalls over the region Friday into Saturday with a continue
chance for heavy rainfall as showers/thunderstorms train over the
same areas. The ground will likely already be saturated and therefore
a significant threat for flash flooding/river flooding appears
likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  67  27  39 /  90 100  30  30
FSM   63  74  45  46 /  90  90  90  70
MLC   67  72  36  40 /  90 100  70  50
BVO   46  64  24  37 /  90  90  20  20
FYV   64  71  36  40 / 100 100  90  60
BYV   62  72  34  37 /  90  90 100  60
MKO   62  69  34  40 /  90 100  70  30
MIO   62  67  27  37 / 100 100  60  20
F10   64  68  32  38 /  90 100  40  30
HHW   65  71  44  48 / 100 100 100  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     OKZ049-053-058-062-063-067>076.

AR...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....12



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.