Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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