Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 060947
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER
TOP OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WAS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
CWA HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THIS FLOW
COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL AID IN TEMPS WARMING BACK UP CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. THE COOL SPOTS LOOK TO BE OVER ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER
IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS IT CONTINUES TO MELT AWAY. THE
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO GET INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE CWA.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN BAJA IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND WEAKENS. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO WINTRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS A RESULT OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PRECIP
CHANCES. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CWA. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

AT THE FAR END OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A WAVE DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF EAST
TEXAS. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN AND FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE
SMALL POPS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS DATA COMES IN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  31  61  35 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   49  28  60  33 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   50  30  59  36 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   55  27  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   46  28  56  30 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   44  31  57  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   51  29  59  34 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   50  30  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
F10   52  31  60  36 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   48  28  56  36 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....20





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