Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271756
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1156 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few scattered rain showers and isolated t-storms quickly working
their way through far northeast OK and northwest AR. A second
round of rain showers and possible t-storms will be possible after
02Z...with highest chances after 04Z. Activity will focus on far
eastern OK and western AR. Overnight activity will clear out by
Tuesday morning but low clouds look to hang around as warm front
works northward Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A few isolated to scattered storms making their way northeastward
this morning. Some of these storms cable of producing brief heavy
downpours and small hail. Convection appears to be focused on the
300K layer under weak isentropic lift. Warm front still remains
south of the CWA and will gradually push northward with time. Next
round of convection to work its way north tonight...a few of these
storms could be strong to severe. Updates to PoP and sky cover the
primary changes to the forecast this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Sfc warm front remains well south of the Red River this morning
with isolated storms ongoing across SE OK along the elevated
frontal zone. Regional VWP data support the continued northward
advection of the deeper moisture plume and this persistent moist
upglide pattern will support isolated convection through the day.
An uptick in convective coverage is possible after sunset w/ the
strengthening low level jet and a further increase in potential
instability. A few strong to severe storms are possible within
this pattern with short term progs shifting this convection
further eastward by late Monday night.

The warm sector expands across the entire forecast area on Tues
with both temperatures and dewpoints rising to unseasonably high
values. Additionally very steep mid level lapse rates are shown to
overspread much of the region resulting in instability values
strongly atypical for this time of the year. By late afternoon
shortwave troughing will be crossing the southern Rockies with
height falls beginning to influence the region. Forecast soundings
suggest minimal inhibition will be present by this time and any
warm sector confluence zones may be sufficient to ignite storms
which would quickly become severe within a highly sheared
environment. An additional region of focus will be near the sfc
low / dryline interface tracking near the OK/KS border. Storms
originating near this zone will also quickly become severe while
the trailing cold front surging southeastward Tues evening will
provide an additional focus. The frontal forcing along with
strong synoptic scale lift will likely be sufficient to overcome
any remaining inhibition with storm chances sweeping east across
the forecast area Tues night. The aforementioned instability and
fcst shear profiles support a high conditional severe chance w/
low level shear magnitudes and orientation concerning for both
damaging straight line winds and short lived tornadoes within
stronger convective cores.

The front will push through NW AR by sunrise Wednesday with breezy
northwesterly winds and more seasonable temps following. Dry and
mild conditions then prevail through late week with the next
chance of precip arriving late next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  58  80  42 /  20  10  20  20
FSM   69  55  78  50 /  50  20  30  50
MLC   68  62  78  46 /  20  20  20  20
BVO   67  52  81  40 /  20  10  10  30
FYV   66  57  75  46 /  50  20  30  60
BYV   65  57  74  46 /  20  20  50  60
MKO   68  59  76  44 /  50  20  20  30
MIO   67  57  76  41 /  20  20  20  60
F10   67  60  77  43 /  50  10  20  20
HHW   68  60  78  52 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11


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