Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 211143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AT THE ARKANSAS TAF
SITES AND ALSO AT KMLC TODAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE DURING THIS ACTIVITY. KTUL AND KRVS
MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KFYV AND KXNA WHERE SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CORRECTED TO REFLECT CANCELLATION OF FLOOD WATCH
FOR THOSE COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE  ELEVATED THUNDER FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
RATHER ACTIVE AT 930Z. COOL FRONT FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO LOW IN
WEST TEXAS. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SLOW COLD
FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN
AND THUNDER FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA..AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE INCLUSION OF
CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES.

THUNDER THREAT FINALLY ENDS THIS EVENING AS H5
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MINIMAL POP RETAINED FROM EARLIER FORECAST FOR
MOIST FLOW WORKING UNDER H5 RIDGE THURSDAY.

ECMWF FORECAST WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH PRECIP.
GFS DRY. LEANED WITH ECMWF OUTCOME FOR CHANCE
POPS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05
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