Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271617
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID WINTER AFTERNOON SHAPING UP. 12Z OUN
SOUNDING VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC WITH 900MB TEMPS NEAR 16C...
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING
WORKING AGAINST US TODAY WILL BE A LIGHT SE WIND COMPONENT WHICH
IS NOT OPTIMAL. IN ANY CASE...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE
ATTAINED WITH MID OR EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S WEST OF TULSA. TUL
RECORD HIGH OF 74 FOR TODAY LIKELY IN JEOPARDY. UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SURGES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMING
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REAL COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
DEPARTING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
AS A GOOD SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS INFUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BECOME CLEARER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORMAL SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  39  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   67  41  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16







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