Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 201554
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1054 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ADVANCING DRY LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PROGRESS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS CURRENTLY NEAR A KEMP-KJWG-KGSM LINE. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE AID OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. TORNADOES AGAIN APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR THREAT
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OCCURRING BETWEEN INTERSTATES 44 AND 40.
LOCAL MODELS ARE GAINING GREATER CONSISTENCY IN HIGHLIGHTING
THIS AREA FOR TORNADOES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE OUT THIS
EVENING WITH STORMS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.
TRYING TO PINPOINT TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....14
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