000
FXUS64 KTSA 181737
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A strong cold front... currently located along a line extending
from Kansas City through Ponca City to Wichita Falls, TX... will
continue to push SEwrd through the CWA late this morning and
through the afternoon hours. An undular bore wave was observed
advancing ahead of the front with broken skies behind this
feature. Storm coverage today will be largely influenced by the
degree of cloud clearing and resultant sfc heating, with a wide
variety of solutions offered by CAM guidance. The aforementioned
undular bore may actually help to break up the clouds as it moves
southeast well ahead of the front. Thus, currently believe clouds
will still erode enough to allow for temps to at least climb into
the upper 70s/ lower 80s for much of the area. With this in mind,
have kept PoPs in the high-end chance/ low-end likely category
this afternoon for much of E OK & NW AR... with probability of
thunder nearly equal to PoP. Regional radiosondes this morning &
forecast model soundings suggest the preceding airmass will be
capable of fostering severe weather as the front helps force
convection later today. Large hail, potentially in excess of 2",
and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph are expected to be the main
hazards with strongest storms today. While low level shear will be
lacking and low level/ sfc flow will likely be veered ahead of
the front, a non-zero tornado threat may also develop for any
storms off the boundary with a favorable storm motion.
Precipitation should move south of the FA around sunset this
evening with the primary timing for storms (and attendant severe
threat) occurring between 1PM to 7PM.

A period of gusty northerly winds will likely follow the front
this afternoon/ early evening, especially in NE OK. Gusts may
approach advisory speeds (40 mph) for a few hours... though will
hold off on issuing any headlines for now due to expected short
duration and limited coverage. May need to reconsider if gusts are
higher or more widespread than currently forecast. Otherwise,
expect early daytime highs across northern zones as temps fall
behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Much cooler weather will continue tonight through the upcoming
weekend. Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread back over the
area late Friday into Saturday night, with the majority of the
rain focused across the southern half of the forecast area. Have
trimmed back pops from the NBM, especially in the northern half of
the area, where the latest model trends suggest little or no
rainfall will likely occur.

After a dry and seasonably cool day Monday, unsettled weather will
return for the rest of next week. A weak frontal boundary will
move into the area Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and storms
at that time. Daily shower and storm chances are likely to
continue for the rest of next week, with temperatures close to the
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR conditions will likely continue for much of E OK & NW AR
through this evening, with improving cigs expected across NE OK
by 06z. MVFR cigs are projected to persist across NW AR sites
through much of the night, improving tomorrow morning. There may
be a period of IFR ceilings between 00-06z for NW AR sites as
well. As a cold front pushes through the region this afternoon,
winds will shift from southerly to northerly, becoming gusty at
times following the front. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast
along the front, potentially impacting all sites except for BVO...
which is already in the post-frontal airmass... and have included
TEMPO groups to account for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  68  48  61 /   0  10  30  40
FSM   53  72  52  60 /  20  20  50  50
MLC   50  70  51  58 /   0  20  70  70
BVO   41  66  44  62 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   45  69  46  61 /  20  20  40  40
BYV   46  66  47  61 /  30  10  30  30
MKO   48  69  49  59 /   0  20  50  50
MIO   43  65  44  60 /   0  10  20  30
F10   47  68  49  58 /   0  20  60  60
HHW   51  69  52  58 /  40  20  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43