000
FXUS64 KTSA 230915
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW LOW LEVEL AND UPPER
JETS TEAMING TO PRODUCE LINE OF CONVECTION NORTHWEST
OK TO SOUTH CENTRAL / SOUTHEAST OK. HOW MUCH OF THAT
TRANSLATES INTO EASTERN OK..NORTHWEST AR IS FORECAST
QUESTION OF THE DAY. NEITHER HR3 NOR LOCAL MODEL HAS
GRASP ON CURRENT ACTION.  WILL PUNT ON THIS ONE WITH
CHANCE POPS AND LET DAY SHIFT AMEND AS NEEDED.

UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH TO
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND  PROVIDES LITTLE
SHELTER FROM CHANCE PRECIPITATION.  PWA VALUES  1.25
TO 1.50...MINOR WAVES..CERTAIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
DEFIES MUCH FORECAST DEFINITION THIS CYCLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK PACIFIC NORTHWEST ENERGY DROPS INTO
DESSERT SOUTHWEST..PUMPING UP MOIST GULF RIDGE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD GET INTERESTING AS THAT
ALL TRANSLATES EAST.                             GW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  58  78  63 /  20  20  40  20
FSM   83  60  79  57 /  20  20  20   0
MLC   83  63  78  61 /  30  20  20  20
BVO   78  57  75  59 /  20  20  40  30
FYV   78  54  75  54 /  30  10  20   0
BYV   78  51  73  53 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   81  59  78  58 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   77  54  77  59 /  30  20  20  10
F10   81  61  78  62 /  30  20  30  20
HHW   86  66  79  63 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21