Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 230957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION
SETTING UP TONIGHT  AND  SUNDAY FOR OSAGE WASHINGTON
NOWATA PAWNEE  TULSA  ROGERS  WAGONER CREEK OKMULGEE
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES. FORECAST FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR PART / ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES. LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD BE...SEVERAL INCHES HIGHER. CREEK OSAGE PAWNEE
COUNTIES LOOK TO BE MOST VULNERABLE.  STAY TUNED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  PROLONGED PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW COUPLED WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH  1.75
TO 2.00  PRECIPITABLE WATER SPELLS ULTRA WET EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT  WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT SUNDAY
EASTERN OK AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AR.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER BY DAYLIGHT MONDAY EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHEAST OK.  UPCOMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES WAVY
PATTERN...HOWEVER LESS POTENT WAVES. CHANCE POP MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  90 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  60  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  70 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  90 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  60  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  70 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  70 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  80 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  70  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





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