Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 300221
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
921 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WEAK TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OK TONIGHT...DESERVING OF AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO
CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS NEAR KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS AS
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER IN THOSE AREAS. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THESE MAY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF
ANY TAF SITE. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...  WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
BACK TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA  AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL UPPER WAVE AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF EASTERN ZONES BY
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY JUST REACH
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES BEFORE WASHING OUT / MOVING BACK
NORTH SATURDAY. CHANCE PRECIP PRIMARILY CONFINED TO SOUTH-
EAST AREAS.

DRY SATURDAY NIGHT  AND  SUNDAY AS GREAT PLAINS UPPER WAVE
GENERATES SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS  AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...IN
THE LOW-MID 90S.

UPPER WAVE / SURFACE LOW WILL STAY  WELL NORTH MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO LABOR DAY.  SOUTHERN END OF THAT WAVE  AND
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT ACROSS KANSAS LABOR
DAY.  PROXIMITY COOL FRONT WARRANTS MARGINAL POPS NORTHERN
AREAS FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN  EXTENSIVE UPPER RIDGE  FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  93  74  94 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   72  91  72  92 /  30  30  10  10
MLC   73  91  72  91 /  20  20   0   0
BVO   67  92  67  95 /  30   0   0   0
FYV   68  87  66  89 /  30  30  10  10
BYV   69  88  68  89 /  30  40  10  10
MKO   71  90  71  91 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   70  89  69  92 /  30  20   0  10
F10   71  92  71  92 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   72  91  72  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99






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