Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 212317
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS NW ARKANSAS...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA AS WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
WITH ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. FOG POTENTIAL MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AT
LEAST SOME AREAS OF FOG LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER NW ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OK
WITH FRONT PASSAGE LIMITS POTENTIAL THERE. CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH
WINDS BECOMING EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION. NEAR THE RED RIVER...WARMER TEMPS AND A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS. WARMER TEMPS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE CWA. A DRYLINE
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LLJ INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
APPROACHING WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT ENTERING INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR A LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND RETREAT NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
ONCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF...LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF...AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY...WITH GREATER CHANCES NEAR THE
STALLED WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CWA SATURDAY...THOUGH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY COOLER TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND AS LATEST
DATA COMES IN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







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