Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 051742
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1142 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The combination of eroding fog and expanding stratus deck has led
to widely varying flight conditions this morning. Flight
conditions will continue to be impacted through the forecast
period especially from late evening through Tues morning. Areas of
fog and lowering ceilings will create widespread IFR to periodic
IFR conditions overnight light rain and drizzle expected for
western AR sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
widespread fog/freezing fog has developed at most taf sites this
morning with ifr/lifr conditions likely to persist through about
14z before fog dissipates. should see a period of vfr conditions
late morning into the afternoon before rain begins to develop
across southeast ok and spread into northwest ar. lower ceilings
should eventually return to most areas this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of dense fog/freezing fog have developed over portions of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning. Short term trends will
continue to be monitored in case the advisory needs to be expanded
any further westward to possibly include the Tulsa metro. Visibilities
will begin to improve by mid morning with the fog lifting.

Scattered areas of light rain will likely move into southeast
Oklahoma this afternoon in association with approaching upper wave
lifting into south Texas. Precipitation will spread across the
remainder of the area this evening into the overnight hours with
the highest rainfall totals across far SE OK/NW AR.

Behind departing wave, initial cold front will move into northeast
Oklahoma late tonight pushing through the remainder of the area
during the day Tuesday. The much advertised secondary push of much
colder arctic air will move through on Wednesday. Areas of light
snow and/or light freezing drizzle will be possible behind the
front, transitioning to all snow by early Wednesday evening. Best
chance for minor snow accumulations will be across far northeast
Oklahoma, near the state line, and across northwest Arkansas. As
mentioned previously, moisture still appears to be limited in the
dendritic growth region which could keep most of the precipitation
in the form of drizzle/freezing drizzle for much of the day Wednesday.
Precipitation types will continue to be refined in the next couple
of days.

Bitterly cold conditions will develop Wednesday night into Thursday
morning behind the cold front with wind chills likely falling
into the single digits. Arctic high pressure will build directly
over the region by Friday morning and with light winds/clear
skies, lows temperatures in the teens forecast for much the area.

Cold/brisk conditions will likely continue early Saturday morning
as southerly winds begin to increase as surface high shifts east,
especially across eastern Oklahoma. Warmer weather expected
Saturday afternoon into Sunday with limited rain chances returning
Sat night/Sun across southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas ahead
of next front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  36  50  30 /  20  30  10  10
FSM   51  42  52  37 /  50  80  10  10
MLC   50  38  50  34 /  50  50  10  10
BVO   55  30  45  26 /  10  20  10  10
FYV   51  35  46  28 /  20  80  10  10
BYV   50  36  46  30 /  20  80  10  10
MKO   52  36  50  31 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   54  33  45  27 /  10  40   0  10
F10   53  36  49  32 /  30  50  10  10
HHW   48  41  52  40 /  80  70  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$AVIATION...07



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