Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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217
FXUS64 KTSA 300900
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
This morning a weak..nearly stationary frontal boundary remained
positioned from the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles through Southeast
Oklahoma and also Northwest Arkansas. A couple areas of scattered
showers and thunderstorms were ongoing early this morning...one
across Southwest Kansas and the other over the Texas Panhandle and
Western Oklahoma. This activity had developed within areas of more
instability/stronger llj and were drifting southeast within the
continued upper level northwesterly flow. For Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...high level cloud cover associated with the
precip out west was streaming into the region.

Through the morning hours...the two areas of convection out west
should continue to push southeast and weaken with time. Greater
precip chances this morning look to be mainly west of the CWA. By
this afternoon...any additional outflow boundaries from the
morning activity along with the weak frontal boundary expected to
be holding along and near the Interstate 40 corridor again will
allow for additional thunderstorm chances over the CWA this
afternoon and evening. Greater chances this afternoon and evening
look to be mainly along and south of the frontal boundary in
Southeast Oklahoma to Northwest Arkansas. Localy gusty winds and
periods of heavy rainfall could be possible within any
thunderstorm development.

Overnight tonight the frontal boundary is forecast to begin to
slowly lift northeastward. This should help to push the greater
precip chances into Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...with the better MCS potential maybe staying to the
north tonight. Precip chances look to continue to lift
northeastward during the day Sunday as the front is progged to
exit the region Sunday afternoon. Thus...have tapered pops off
from southwest to northeast Sunday afternoon and exit with the
departing front by Sunday evening.

In the wake of the exiting frontal boundary...a ridge of high
pressure is forecast to build back over the Southern Plains
starting Sunday and continue through the upcoming work week. In
response...temperatures should begin a warming trend Sunday with
each day through the middle part of the week being near to a
degree or so warmer then the previous day. Some locations by mid
week could reach back up into the triple digits. This heat
combined with humid conditions will aid in potential heat index
values reaching into the 100 to near 109 degree range.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  96  77 /  40  40  20   0
FSM   93  75  96  76 /  40  40  30  10
MLC   93  75  96  76 /  40  20  10   0
BVO   88  71  94  73 /  30  40  20   0
FYV   87  70  91  73 /  40  50  40  10
BYV   87  70  91  73 /  40  50  40  10
MKO   91  73  95  75 /  40  40  20  10
MIO   88  71  93  73 /  30  50  30  10
F10   92  74  95  76 /  40  40  10   0
HHW   95  74  97  76 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20



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