Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 271444
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
944 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Band of elevated showers across portions of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas will gradually dissipate thru the day. The
surface front was still to our northwest as of 14Z, stretching
from KC down to ICT and down into NW OK. The drier air lags behind
the front, and is just now sagging down into northern KS. Isolated
to widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon
with the slowly moving front, and also possibly in the terrain of
west central AR and southeast OK. Given our close proximity to the
mid level ridge, poor lapse rates aloft and weak shear will
greatly limit severe potential. A marginally severe wind gust is
possible with the stronger storms.

The heat and humidity will likely meet advisory criteria in the
south away from the cloud cover. Will continue to monitor trends
north of I-40 for the possibility of removing some counties from
the going heat advisory.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 548 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Main aviation concern today is potential thunderstorm impacts
beginning late afternoon at the NE OK terminals, spreading
southeastward into the NW AR terminals during the evening, and
finally into SE OK after midnight. Confidence is highest in
thunderstorms affecting the NE OK and far NW AR terminals and as
such, will carry TEMPO groups. PROB30 mentions will be included at
MLC/FSM due to lower confidence. With regards to the ongoing
activity near BVO/TUL/RVS, this set of TAFs will convert VCTS
mentions to VCSH, as no lightning has been detected over the past
few hours and conditions are unlikely to change before the showers
diminish later this morning. A wind shift will occur at all
terminals during this period, as a cold front pushes through.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Increasing pre-frontal low-level warm air advection has resulted
in scattered showers/isolated thunder from western OK into parts
of northeast OK. Hi-res models suggest this activity will linger
into the early morning hours...with the better chances shifting
into parts of northwest AR later this morning. There may be a
break in the scattered convection for much of the afternoon...with
additional storms possible late tonight/evening as the cold front
sags to near I-44. Given the available moisture and hot conditions
south of the front...a few downbursts will be possible.

Will keep the current heat advisory going as is. A few spots could
flirt with excessive heat warning criteria...but confidence isn`t
high enough to upgrade the advisory.

Storm chances will persist Thursday night and into Friday as the
front gradually sags to near the Red River. Most locations will
see a significant break in heat...although could push heat
advisory criteria once again for parts of far southeast OK. Will
let the day shift take another look at this.

An extended period of "cooler" weather is expected through the
weekend and into much of next week as the souther Plains remains
under northwesterly/broadly cyclonic upper flow. The bulk of any
precipitation should mostly remain west of the area...although
there are some hints from the ECMWF that chances increase later
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  76  91  70 /  60  40  20  10
FSM   97  78  93  73 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   97  76  92  72 /  20  40  30  10
BVO   93  71  89  65 /  40  30  20  10
FYV   89  73  86  64 /  40  40  30  10
BYV   89  72  86  66 /  50  40  20  10
MKO   94  76  90  69 /  30  40  30  10
MIO   91  73  87  67 /  40  30  20  10
F10   96  74  90  70 /  30  40  30  10
HHW   97  76  95  74 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-060-
     064>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30


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