067
FXUS64 KTSA 031121
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Some strong to severe storms continue across the forecast
area early this morning, mainly in the vicinity of a weak
surface boundary. The stronger activity appears to be sustained
by 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts despite somewhat limited instability.
Storms will continue to move east southeast the rest of the overnight
but will likely linger across SE OK and WC AR after 12z. Most of
the area should remain dry today, but will maintain a low PoP in
the afternoon for any lingering activity/isolated redevelopment
after 18z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Additional storms will develop to the northwest later today along a
another cold front that will move southeast into the area late
tonight and into Saturday. Severe potential with this round of
storms appears limited as activity begins to diminish Saturday
afternoon. This boundary will stall to the south of the area late
Saturday. Another round of storms will likely develop along the
stalled boundary as an upper wave begins to move through the
southern plains Saturday night. This activity will spread into the
area late Saturday night and continue into Sunday. Storms should
be out of the area by late in the day Sunday, and things should be
quiet for the most part until later in the day Monday and Monday
night. A strong upper system will lift through the mountain west
region and into the high plains Monday evening, with storms
expected to develop along the dry line to the west. These storms
will track east with the highest chances for storms across NE OK
and NW AR Monday night into Tuesday morning. For the rest of the
forecast period, will continue with low PoPs across much of the
area as weak disturbance traverse the area within strong mid level
flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection will steadily wane across the region this morning with
any remaining terminal impacts being short lived. Otherwise widely
varying ceilings are likely through the morning with VFR, MVFR and
periodic IFR levels likely. A trend toward rising ceilings and
improving flight levels is expected by early afternoon. Low
ceilings return overnight with thunderstorm chances increasing
across NE OK terminals after midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  63  78  61 /  10  30  80  50
FSM   82  64  81  66 /  30  10  70  40
MLC   81  65  79  64 /  30  20  60  60
BVO   79  60  77  56 /  10  40  80  40
FYV   81  60  80  60 /  20  10  70  40
BYV   79  60  79  60 /  20  10  70  30
MKO   79  62  77  62 /  20  20  70  50
MIO   79  61  77  59 /  10  30  70  30
F10   79  62  78  62 /  20  20  80  60
HHW   79  65  79  64 /  40  20  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07