Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 171113
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
613 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Cold front, currently located just south of I-44, will push south
of the Red River shortly after sunrise. A few sprinkles will be
possible through mid morning, however no measurable precipitation
expected. Otherwise cool and breezy conditions for this afternoon
behind front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
A secondary surge of colder air expected this evening into the
overnight hours. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing by
Monday morning across most of northeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas, potentially including portions of the Tulsa metro.
The unseasonably cool weather will continue on Monday with high
temperatures only in the upper 40s to mid 50s as surface high
pressure continues to build into the southern Plains. Portions of
far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely see
another freeze Monday night as winds remain light before surface
high shifts southeast early Tuesday morning.
Models remain in good agreement with moving upper low out of the
desert Southwest Wednesday into Thursday with increasing precipitation
chances as scattered showers spread across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. A few isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible, however instability will likely remain modest during
this time as upper system continues to weaken.
Temperature forecast becomes a little more uncertain late week
into the early part of next weekend with significant differences
in the GFS and ECMWF concerning timing of next cold front. This
also includes a larger than normal spread in the ensemble members.
Did raise high temperatures a few degrees from NBM, especially on
Friday, given the much warmer EC solution. Otherwise, no other
significant changes.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 63 31 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 65 35 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 65 35 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 63 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 62 27 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 59 29 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 63 31 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 59 27 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
F10 63 33 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 65 39 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23