Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 270537
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. CEILINGS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL TREND SLOWLY
UPWARD AFTER SUNRISE W/ LATEST DATA HOWEVER MAINTAINING PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SE OK INTO NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING WHICH
WILL LIKELY KEEP FLIGHT LEVELS AT LEAST IN THE MVFR RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR A COPAN TO OKEMAH LINE IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITIES
BECOME FAVORABLE. A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL ALSO POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TULSA METRO AREA. ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO
LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST. CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK...HAVE
ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ONGOING LOW MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD WIDESPREAD IFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NE OK WITHIN A FEW HOURS
ALONG WITH RISING CEILINGS...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING FLIGHT
LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN AR EARLY SAT MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
RISE INTO LOW VFR LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CWA. THE FRONT WAS
POSITIONED FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR
OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/EASTERN IOWA...WITH AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLDER AIR HAS BEEN LAGGING SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW FREEZING OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THUS...PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID
FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...MAINLY OVER WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET COULD MIX IN
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO REAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ALSO LATE TONIGHT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP NEAR
THE RED RIVER THAT COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTENING STRIKE
OR TWO TO BE POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF
THUNDER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AND EXIT THE CWA BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS. TEMPS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
SHOULD OBSERVE HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING AND SLIGHTLY FALL
DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ENDED BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL NOT CARRY ANY WINTRY MIX FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES CUT OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE 20S/30S POSSIBLE. AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...THE INIT MODEL BLEND SEEMED A BIT WARM OVER THE CWA
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE THUS LOWERED TEMPS SOME.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE CUT OFF LOW LOOKS TO
FINLAY EXIT INTO THE PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...AN INCREASE IN
WINTRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CREATE A MESS OF
PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON WHAT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND THE TEMP
PROFILES OVER THE REGION AT THAT TIME. USED A BLENDED SOLUTION AS
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK COMPARED TO THE
GFS. EITHER WAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITOR AS THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER TO START THE NEW YEAR
OVER THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  40  24  44 /  50  20   0   0
FSM   47  47  32  46 /  70  60  20  10
MLC   41  41  27  45 /  60  40  10   0
BVO   34  38  19  42 /  50  10   0   0
FYV   45  45  25  43 /  70  60  10   0
BYV   46  46  28  41 /  60  60  20  10
MKO   39  41  25  44 /  60  30  10   0
MIO   37  39  24  42 /  60  30   0   0
F10   38  40  26  43 /  60  30   0   0
HHW   48  48  32  48 /  70  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




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