Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KTSA 312348
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
RAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS LOWERING INTO
IFR TERRITORY GENERALLY FOR 06Z-14Z TIME PERIOD. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE CEILINGS INCREASING...HOWEVER NORTH-NORTHWEST SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 20 KTS WITH GUST OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS
OF 30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS STILL WINNING OUT OVER EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW.
THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AS LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WITH INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES IN ALL
AREAS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LIGHT BUT WELCOMED NONETHELESS.

AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TURNS EAST SUNDAY A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THERMAL PROFILES
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTER PRECIP...SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. MAIN IMPACT FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS IN PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA GIVEN EXPECTED 925MB
FLOW. MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES
AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE A QUICK WARM UP TUESDAY
COURTESY OF SOUTH WINDS.

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR BY MID WEEK...THIS TIME POTENTIALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A QUICK MOVING WAVE
IN NW FLOW FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER AS EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM
BUT THE ECMWF REMAINS REALLY THE ONLY SOLUTION THAT IS DRY FOR
OK/AR. FOR RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUM OF SNOW...BUT FORECAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
AS THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...IF IT CAN TAKE A FAVORABLE TRACK...CAN
DUMP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...STAY TUNED.

ANY SNOW THAT MAY OCCUR WILL QUICKLY BE GONE AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE WEEKEND. FORECAST 850/900MB TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY SATURDAY...CURRENT HIGHS
IN LOW-MID 60S MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  45  17  36 / 100  30   0   0
FSM   44  50  23  40 / 100  80   0   0
MLC   46  49  20  38 / 100  60   0   0
BVO   40  41  15  35 / 100  30  10   0
FYV   42  46  17  35 / 100  70  10   0
BYV   41  46  18  35 / 100  80  10   0
MKO   44  48  18  37 / 100  50   0   0
MIO   41  45  17  34 / 100  50  10   0
F10   44  46  18  37 / 100  40   0   0
HHW   48  55  23  41 / 100  70   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.