Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280811
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR SUGGEST
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING OF MCS/MCV FEATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION/LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/HIGH PW VALUES...DO EXPECTED LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT IN THE WATCH AREA. AS
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AZ...SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALLOWING REGION A MUCH NEEDED
DRYING OUT PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  65 /  60  50  50  70
FSM   83  67  82  66 /  40  30  50  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 /  60  50  50  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  60  50  50  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  40  30  50  60
BYV   80  66  80  64 /  40  30  50  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 /  60  50  50  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 /  50  40  50  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  60  50  50  70
HHW   84  68  80  65 /  50  50  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12




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