Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 172113
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Increase in mid/high clouds ahead of approaching upper low has
held temps down just a bit...but nonetheless it`s a pleasant day
out there with readings in the mostly in the 60s. Area radars
depicting a few light showers across the southeast...although any
rainfall will remain spotty. The upper low will move through
southeast OK/western AR later tonight...along with an increase in
low-level moisture and few light showers.

Upper ridging will quickly build across the region on Sunday in the
wake of the exiting upper low. While cloud cover may hold temps
down a bit...still expect a very mild day...with highs well into
the 70s.

Deep upper trof/cyclone will approach late in the weekend...with a
significant surge of low-level moisture in the deep southerly
flow. Rain chances will increase later Sunday night into early
Monday...with PoPs tapering off by Monday afternoon. ECMWF/GFS
showing about a 6-hour difference in placement of heaviest
rainfall axis...with the GFS being the fastest. Have generally
gone with a compromise for now...which speeds things up a bit over
the previous forecast. Heaviest rainfall should remain focused
south of the area into eastern TX...although parts of southeast OK
could see around 1-1.5".

Warmer/dry weather will quickly return by Tuesday and continue for
most of next week. Next Thursday is shaping up to be the
warmest (and have the highest fire danger threat)...with a strong
thermal ridge and southwesterly surface flow developing ahead of
the next cold front. Said cold front should push through Thursday
night...with more seasonal temps expected for the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  68  54  76 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   49  68  52  77 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   51  69  55  75 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   46  68  47  75 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   43  64  48  74 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   46  66  51  73 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   47  68  53  76 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   47  68  50  76 /  10  10   0  10
F10   49  68  53  74 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   50  68  54  75 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18



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