000
FXUS64 KTSA 212012
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS THAT HAS FORMED AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM SURGING
ACROSS OK/TX IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN OK. THE
LINE HAS BEEN STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE SO FAR...AND STILL COULD SEE
SOME 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS SHOWN A
VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE COMPLEX...WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXITING OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND 22Z-23Z. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS. WILL TAKE A
LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE FINAL DECISION. OTHERWISE...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO DRY AND WORKED OVER TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED BY MID-TO-LATE
WEEK...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SANDWICHED BY DEEP UPPER
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND THE EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...WITH AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED ACROSS WRN SECTIONS IN THE VERY
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN SOME ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRL PLAINS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER UPPER FLOW...SHOULD SEE PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
EPISODES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK/NW AR. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHICH
DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL CHANCE
POPS FOR ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  81  58  78 /  40   0  10  20
FSM   58  83  62  81 /  80  10  10  10
MLC   55  83  61  84 /  40   0  10  20
BVO   52  81  54  77 /  20   0  10  20
FYV   54  79  55  76 /  80  10  10  10
BYV   56  79  55  77 /  80  10  10  10
MKO   55  82  60  79 /  60  10  10  20
MIO   54  78  56  78 /  50  10  10  10
F10   55  82  61  79 /  30   0  10  20
HHW   60  85  64  85 /  50   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18