Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 161516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   84  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   79  64  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   79  62  81  64 /  20  20  50  40
BYV   74  61  78  63 /  20  20  60  50
MKO   82  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   76  63  83  66 /  20  20  50  50
F10   82  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   87  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20




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