Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 172340
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 00Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the TAF period. The surface ridge
will slide far enough south and east of the region to allow for
stronger south winds on Wednesday. Gusts from 15 to 20 kts will be
possible at the NE OK and NW AR TAF sites during the day.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 250 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The active upper flow will remain well north of the area for the
next several days...with rather weak westerly/northwesterly
mid-level flow expected across eastern OK and northwest AR. The
surface ridge will linger...insuring another chilly night or two
before more significant southerly low-level flow returns late
this week as the ridge slides east.

Low-level moisture will make a significant return late Friday into
Friday night as lead shortwave approaches. Guidance is in good
agreement bringing a large ribbon of mid-60s dewpoints into
central and parts of eastern OK by this time...ahead of a
developing frontal boundary across the central Plains.

Thunderstorm chances will increase later Saturday and especially
into Saturday evening and overnight as the cold front sweeps
through the region. Forecast instability and wind shear appear
sufficient to support some severe weather...especially during the
evening hours...and locally heavy rainfall may be a concern as
well. Precipitation will be ending early Sunday as the cold front
shifts east of the region.

A deepening eastern US upper trof will put the area under stronger
northwesterly flow going into early next week. This will be a
favorable pattern to bring in another shot of cooler air around
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  79  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  79  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   47  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   44  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   45  78  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   46  79  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   46  77  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   45  80  50  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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