Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 270828
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




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