Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 042030
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A low pressure system was moving eastward across the Great Lake
region this afternoon with a trailing weak cold front positioned
over the Ohio River valley to Northern Arkansas to Northeast
Oklahoma. A lack of moisture over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas has kept the frontal passage dry with little more than a
wind shift out of the north northwest gusting in the 20-25 mph
range.

This frontal boundary will continue to move southward through the
CWA tonight with drier air filtering into the region along with
continued mostly clear skies. These conditions along with winds
becoming light will aid temperatures in falling into the 40s for
most locations tonight. Slightly cooler conditions look to
continue Thursday...a couple degrees cooler than today... as
northerly winds both at the surface and aloft remain behind the
departed frontal boundary.

Ridge of high pressure out west moves into the Plains Friday and
Saturday with a return of southerly winds and warmer temperatures
to the CWA. Highs back into the 80s will be possible for much of
the region by Saturday. At the same time a closed low...currently
approaching the California coast...is forecast to move into the
Inter-Mountain West Saturday with a dryline developing over the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

The ridge of high pressure looks to flatten out and push
southeast Sunday as the low is progged to move into the Central
Plains Sunday into the first half of next week. This will allow
for thunderstorm chances to return to the CWA late in the weekend
and continue Monday and Tuesday as the cold front/dryline out west
moves into the CWA. Increasing moisture and instability ahead of
the approaching cold front/dryline will allow for at least a
limited severe potential over parts of the region...with the
greater chances Monday into Tuesday. By the middle part of next
week...the upper low looks to finally exit the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  78  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   47  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   41  77  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  72  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   43  72  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   46  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  75  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  76  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   48  77  50  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20


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