Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 292322
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL BUT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST... WITH -RA
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AREAWIDE.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...TORNADO WATCH FOR FAR ERN OK/NW AR UNTIL 7 PM. HAVE SEEN
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT
IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING NORTH AND EAST. GIVEN THE LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT
AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES...RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH
POCKETS OF 1-2 INCHES/PER HOUR LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS
SHIFT EAST. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING KS WILL MOVE INTO NE
OK AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OTHER SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS BIT HIGHER GOING INTO SATURDAY AS THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR TOMORROW AS MAIN TROF AXIS WILL HAVE ALREADY
PASSED TO OUR EAST. WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT PORTIONS OF IT WILL BE
CLEARED EARLIER THAN 00Z SUNDAY.

DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDGING/HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...BRINGING A WELCOMED PERIOD OF
MUCH DRIER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS
SE OK/WRN AR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIMITED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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