Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 042315
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.UPDATE...

Fog was inserted into the forecast for tonight. See discussion
below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies and calm winds will allow fog to develop in a cool
and relatively moist airmass near the ground. Forecast lows across
much of NE OK and NW AR are well below the crossover temps, and
the 18Z run of the HRRRX developed widespread fog in this area.
In addition, as temps drop below freezing in areas of dense fog,
freezing fog could create a few slick spots on bridges, especially
over bodies of water. Expect the fog to develop after midnight and
burn off by mid to late morning on Monday before the clouds
increase and the rains move in. Updated text products sent.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Clearing trend will continue this evening but will reverse course
later tonight, as clouds begin to spread back north in advance of
the ejecting upper low from Baja. Cloudiness will continue to
increase Monday, and rain will spread into southeast Oklahoma by
late morning or early afternoon as the upper low begins its trek
across Texas towards the Arklatex. Rain will continue to spread
north Monday afternoon and early evening before ending later
Monday night, with Interstate 44 looking to be about the
northwest extent of any rainfall.

An initial cold front will move across the forecast area early
Tuesday, with the stronger arctic front following close behind on
Wednesday. The most significant precipitation will remain to our
north across Kansas, but some light rain, drizzle, snow, and/or
freezing drizzle will be possible in our area as the cold air
moves in. The lack of significant moisture in the dendritic growth
region may favor a drizzle/freezing drizzle event over snow, and
precipitation types will continue to be refined over the next
couple days.

The coldest air in a couple years will follow the front Wednesday
night into Friday before a warming trend takes place by next
weekend.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  53  35  48 /   0  10  40  10
FSM   34  50  39  52 /   0  50  80  10
MLC   35  51  38  51 /   0  50  70  10
BVO   25  54  32  46 /   0  10  20   0
FYV   26  51  34  47 /   0  30  80   0
BYV   30  49  35  47 /   0  30  80  10
MKO   34  51  37  49 /   0  30  70  10
MIO   31  53  34  46 /   0  10  40   0
F10   35  52  37  49 /   0  20  60   0
HHW   39  48  40  55 /  10  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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