Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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194
FXUS64 KTSA 190808
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
308 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus of this forecast period will be on Saturday into
Saturday night with the increasing potential for severe weather
and heavy rainfall as a vigorous mid-level trof and associated
cold front move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Today will be another unseasonably warm Autumn day across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure at the surface and
aloft prevail. Friday will see slightly cooler temperatures as
the cloud cover and moisture increase across the region in advance
of the storm system that is expected to affect the area over the
weekend. There continues to be a small chance of elevated showers
and thunderstorms during the day on Friday as a mid-level shortwave
moved out of Texas and across the area. There will be slightly better
chances of elevated showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday
morning in the warm air advection regime ahead the approaching cold
front.

As mentioned earlier, the main concern with the forecast package will
be Saturday and especially Saturday night as a cold front is expected to
sweep across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The models have been
very consistent over the past several days with the timing of the cold front
through the area. Severe weather is looking more likely with a line of
severe thunderstorms expected to develop in the vicinity of the cold front
to our north and west and move into eastern Oklahoma Saturday evening and
into western Arkansas as we move into the late evening and overnight hours.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main concern. However, the threat for
tornadoes will not be zero. With precipitable water values in excess 1.5 inches
expected across the area Saturday night, 1 to 2 inches of rain will be common
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Saturday into Saturday with some
areas seeing upwards of 4 inches of rain. The showers and thunderstorms are expected
to come to an end Sunday morning as the cold front moves east of the area.

The forecast for early next week is a little more murky as the models now seemingly
agree that a closed mid-level low will be carved out as we move into Sunday night and
early next week. However, they disagree on location and progressiveness of this feature.
Will continue to keep the forecast dry for now with low confidence in the Sunday into
Monday portion of the forecast. There is better confidence that a surge a cooler
air will move into the region Monday night into Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  57  78  65 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   82  53  80  62 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   81  58  79  66 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   81  55  77  65 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   79  53  76  62 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   81  53  77  60 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   80  56  79  64 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   80  54  77  63 /   0   0  10  20
F10   80  57  78  64 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   81  58  80  64 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....10



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