Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291149
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
649 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A strong upper storm system and warm front will bring unsettled
weather to the TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Periods of
thunderstorms and MVFR/IFR conditions are a given. Storms should
begin to clear out of the area fm W to E aft 00Z tonight as winds
shift to the west behind a developing cold front.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Impressive setup taking shape for significant rainfall event
across much of eastern OK and western AR. Bottom line is that high
risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will exist through
tonight as has been advertised. Widespread 4-6 inch rainfall
amounts likely with local totals around 10 inches definitely
possible before all is said and done.

Early AM sfc analysis showed an increasingly well-defined warm
front from just north of KFSM and extending back into southwest
OK near KLAW. Front zone has sharpened as low level flow to the
south responds to approaching upper system and widespread precip
to the north reinforces the cooling to the north. Boundary not
expected to move significantly during the day and will remain the
focus for the more significant flooding and severe weather
potential. Very impressive moisture transport continues to ride
into frontal zone with widespread showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move over same general area. Airmass south of the
front remains quite moist and unstable with sfc CAPE near 4000j/kg
and while most storms should remain elevated to the north of the
front, with very large hail and some threat of damaging winds, any
storm that can become rooted in the boundary layer and ingest
this air will pose a threat of tornadoes.

Slow movement of upper system will allow continued northward
moisture transport and strong synoptic forcing through this
evening, before front finally moves east of the area by Sunday.
Windy and cool conditions will prevail Sunday with a few showers
remaining possible in northern areas.

A faster moving shortwave in northwest flow will bring another
shot of widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Storms should mainly be elevated north of sfc
boundary, and fast movement of system will keep rainfall amounts
much more reasonable. Long stretch of dry weather should follow
beyond that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  49  56  42 / 100  80  20  10
FSM   80  57  65  45 / 100  90  30  10
MLC   79  50  61  44 / 100  80  20   0
BVO   59  49  53  41 / 100  80  30  10
FYV   74  55  58  43 / 100  90  30  10
BYV   74  59  62  42 / 100  90  40  10
MKO   72  51  58  43 / 100  80  20  10
MIO   68  52  57  42 / 100  80  30  20
F10   68  49  59  43 / 100  80  20  10
HHW   80  54  64  46 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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