Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 291149
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
649 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A strong upper storm system and warm front will bring unsettled
weather to the TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Periods of
thunderstorms and MVFR/IFR conditions are a given. Storms should
begin to clear out of the area fm W to E aft 00Z tonight as winds
shift to the west behind a developing cold front.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/
Impressive setup taking shape for significant rainfall event
across much of eastern OK and western AR. Bottom line is that high
risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will exist through
tonight as has been advertised. Widespread 4-6 inch rainfall
amounts likely with local totals around 10 inches definitely
possible before all is said and done.
Early AM sfc analysis showed an increasingly well-defined warm
front from just north of KFSM and extending back into southwest
OK near KLAW. Front zone has sharpened as low level flow to the
south responds to approaching upper system and widespread precip
to the north reinforces the cooling to the north. Boundary not
expected to move significantly during the day and will remain the
focus for the more significant flooding and severe weather
potential. Very impressive moisture transport continues to ride
into frontal zone with widespread showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move over same general area. Airmass south of the
front remains quite moist and unstable with sfc CAPE near 4000j/kg
and while most storms should remain elevated to the north of the
front, with very large hail and some threat of damaging winds, any
storm that can become rooted in the boundary layer and ingest
this air will pose a threat of tornadoes.
Slow movement of upper system will allow continued northward
moisture transport and strong synoptic forcing through this
evening, before front finally moves east of the area by Sunday.
Windy and cool conditions will prevail Sunday with a few showers
remaining possible in northern areas.
A faster moving shortwave in northwest flow will bring another
shot of widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Storms should mainly be elevated north of sfc
boundary, and fast movement of system will keep rainfall amounts
much more reasonable. Long stretch of dry weather should follow
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 49 56 42 / 100 80 20 10
FSM 80 57 65 45 / 100 90 30 10
MLC 79 50 61 44 / 100 80 20 0
BVO 59 49 53 41 / 100 80 30 10
FYV 74 55 58 43 / 100 90 30 10
BYV 74 59 62 42 / 100 90 40 10
MKO 72 51 58 43 / 100 80 20 10
MIO 68 52 57 42 / 100 80 30 20
F10 68 49 59 43 / 100 80 20 10
HHW 80 54 64 46 / 100 90 10 0
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-