Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 282147
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A RARE SUNNY DAY FOR THIS DECEMBER ANYWAY HAS MELTED MOST OF THE
SNOW COVER WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MOST AREAS.
CHILLY TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...SOME PARTS OF EASTERN OK WILL SEE A LIGHT SE WIND
WHICH WILL HOLD UP TEMPS A LITTLE WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST WILL BE
A TAD COLDER TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE MORE ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SE WINDS...SOME LOW 50S EXPECTED OVER FAR SE OKLAHOMA.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OK/AR MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN FALLING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR
TUE NIGHT...CONTINUED VERY COLD WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
REMAINING IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK TURNS TO A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP BY THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING IN
THIS REGIME...CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AT THIS POINT REMAINS
HOW FAST THE EXISTING COLD DRY AIR CAN RETREAT. FORECAST THICKNESS
FIELDS IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WINTER
MIX INITIALLY THURSDAY...WITH RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BECOMING
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM LAYER EXPANDS. SFC
TEMPS BY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT ALL RAIN.

THE BIG FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND FARTHER SOUTH IMPLYING
POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE
GFS CONTINUES TO OPEN THE SYSTEM AND LIFT IT NORTHEAST MUCH
FASTER. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE ECMWF DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT
FROM THE CANADIAN AND THE PARALLEL GFS WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK. THIS FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  46  24  33 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   28  48  30  41 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   27  51  28  39 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   18  44  21  29 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   22  45  23  35 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   25  43  23  33 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   25  48  27  36 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   22  44  23  31 /   0   0  10  10
F10   26  49  27  35 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   28  51  31  44 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14







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