000
FXUS64 KTSA 220926
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY A DRY DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL. DARBY
QPF FOOTPRINT ALGORITHM APPLIED TO MAX TEMPS.

ECMWF AS WELL AS GFS INTENT ON A DIRTY RIDGE
OVER FORECAST AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY. RETURN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE  UNDERNEATH RIDGE  ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN PAST COUPLE DAYS
YIELDS CHANCE POPS.  LEANED TOWARD  SUPERIOR
ECMWF AND ITS WETTER SOLUTION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINS LOW
OR MARGINAL POP WITH LITTLE TO DELINEATE DRY
WEATHER FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WEATHER.  MUST BE
LATE SPRING.                              GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  58  78  58 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   79  60  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   79  62  81  63 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   76  53  75  56 /   0   0  30  10
FYV   74  54  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   74  56  75  53 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   78  59  78  59 /   0   0  20  10
MIO   75  56  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
F10   79  60  78  60 /   0   0  20  20
HHW   81  63  85  65 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21