Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 162125
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
325 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Warm and windy conditions are on the way for eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas tomorrow, ahead of a strong cold front that will
move through tomorrow night and into Saturday. The strong
southerly low level flow will lead to increasing moisture across
the region tonight and tomorrow, with low clouds, drizzle, and
possibly, a few showers expected into tomorrow morning. How
quickly the clouds diminish during the day tomorrow will have a
huge impact on how warm and also how windy things will get.
Current expectations are for the clouds to persist well into the
afternoon across much of the area, especially east of Highway 75,
with some sun mid to late afternoon to the west of the highway. As
such, forecast highs have been held toward the lower end of
guidance, with potential for isolated near advisory criteria wind
gusts, rather than something more widespread. The lower
temperatures and continued moisture will reduce any fire danger,
despite the windy conditions.

The front will pass through the area tomorrow night and into
Saturday morning, with even stronger north to northwest winds
immediately behind it. There will be a few hour window following
the frontal passage for advisory level wind gusts during the
morning and early afternoon, then diminishing mid to late
afternoon tomorrow. Despite the cooler temperatures on Saturday,
the overall fire danger may be increased some behind the front
with low level moisture also falling off quickly behind it. The
chance of precipitation with the front is nonzero, with portions
of northwest Arkansas most likely to see rain. However, the chance
is currently low enough to leave out of the forecast.

While temperatures will not remain static through the early to
middle part of next week, afternoon highs should remain within a
couple of degrees of normal each day except for perhaps Wednesday
behind another cold front on Tuesday. Precipitation chances look
minimal, with maybe a few showers in southeast Oklahoma with the
aforementioned Tuesday front. Uncertainty is high enough in the
latter point to leave out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  76  54  58 /  30  20  10   0
FSM   54  75  59  63 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   58  76  59  60 /  30  20  10   0
BVO   53  75  48  58 /  30  20  10   0
FYV   51  69  59  59 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   50  69  57  57 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   56  73  56  59 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   53  70  52  56 /  30  20  10  10
F10   56  76  56  59 /  30  20  10   0
HHW   57  76  62  66 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....22


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