Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 282300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERIODICALLY AFFECT ANY SITE
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 9Z... THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

NOTE: ONGOING PROBLEM WITH VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN POSSIBLY BE LOWER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






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