Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200436
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 06Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
No major changes were made to the 00Z forecast. Some LLWS mention
was added to the KBVO/KRVS sites due to a combination of light
surface wind and strenghtening low level southerly flow right off
the deck. Light surface winds will become southerly by mid morning
Monday, with gusts above 20 kts expected for the NE OK and NW AR
sites.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 831 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have only made few minor adjustments to the grids for Tonight to
better reflect the current trends in observations and the short-term
model guidance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 454 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 00Z TAF forecast can be found below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the period at all sites. Light
winds tonight will pick up out of the south by mid morning Monday,
with gusts abv 20 kts possible at the NE OK and NW AR sites.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather concerns increase Monday afternoon especially across
northeast Oklahoma where winds will be the strongest. Forecast
trended toward slightly warmer high temps along with slightly
lower dewpoints which results in near red flag criteria.
The lack of appreciable rainfall along with conditions near the
current forecast will support rapid fire spread Monday afternoon.

Cold front passes during the day Tuesday with cooler temperatures
lagging the wind shift. Wednesday will likely be the coolest day
of the week before a quick warm up Thursday and well above normal
temperatures Friday. The next cold front arrives Saturday and
again is expected to pass through the region dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  65  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   35  64  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  64  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  65  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   29  60  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   35  61  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   34  64  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   35  63  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
F10   36  64  44  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  63  43  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....30



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