Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 011732
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1132 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites with mid and high clouds increasing over
the region with time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is on track for Today. No significant changes
expected at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 523 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Very cold night in progress...with light winds, no clouds and
temps falling into the low to mid 20s across far northeast OK and
low to mid 30s farther south. Flow aloft will be zonal across the
region today before heights rise in advance of western US storm
system. Temps will be a few degrees warmer today with full
sun...and lighter winds. Upper low becomes cut off near Baja by
Friday night...with increasing clouds through the day Friday.

Widespread light precipitation should develop late Friday across
west TX through OK...within warm advection regime and spread
northeast across OK and western AR by early Saturday morning. It
will be a cold rain across the area on Saturday with eventual clearing
from west to east. Sunday will be the nicer day of the
weekend...although there may be lingering rain showers early
especially across western AR.

There are timing differences between the extended models in the
Mon-Wed period as the upper low ejects northeast into the Plains.
It does appear likely that Monday may be the wetter day...with a
brief warmup on Tue with dry weather...before an arctic cold front
races into the area by Wednesday. Will keep Wed dry for now given
uncertainty with extended guidance. What is certain is that
temperatures will be much below normal by Wed-Thu. Some of the
numerical guidance suggests lows by next Thu morning could drop
into the 15-20 degree range with highs in the 30s/low 40s. This of
course makes us vulnerable for wintry precip events by the mid to
end part of next week...given a massive cold intrusion of air
combined with waves moving through the w/sw flow aloft.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10


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