Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 170536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTH TO EAST WILL
REMAIN COMMON TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...OVERCAST MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO SET UP OVER THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND BECOME
COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PESKY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
REMAINING CLOUD COVER ACROSS FAR NW AR. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN FROM THE
WEST BY TOMORROW MORNING. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME TO SET
UP TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST PRECIP ON
THURSDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS FAR ERN AND NRN ZONES THURSDAY. BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY
SLIDES THROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY/AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING THE TROUGH
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTIONS. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE QPF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR. WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP CONFINED TO THE NOCTURNAL
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NEXT RAIN CHANCES COME LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  41  37  46 /   0  60  50  20
FSM   28  41  37  46 /   0  60  80  20
MLC   30  43  39  50 /   0  80  60  10
BVO   23  39  34  43 /   0  50  50  20
FYV   23  42  33  43 /   0  50  80  20
BYV   27  40  34  42 /   0  40  80  20
MKO   28  40  36  44 /   0  60  60  20
MIO   25  39  33  42 /   0  50  60  20
F10   29  40  38  46 /   0  60  60  10
HHW   32  43  41  51 /   0  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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