Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 151900
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
200 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Low level stratus deck continues to erode and scatter out across
the area this afternoon while high clouds stream across the area
within the southwesterly flow aloft. Overall, a nice afternoon is
in store with temperatures near normal for this time of year, and
no precipitation expected, though breezy northerly winds will
make it feel a little cool out there. Surface high pressure will
settle over the region tonight with the ridge axis setting up near
the OK/KS border by tomorrow morning. This will allow winds to
calm and overnight lows to dip quite a bit cooler than the
previous few nights, especially where clouds completely clear the
area. Some locations across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas could dip into the upper 30s. Some light fog could
develop, especially within the more sheltered valleys, late
tonight...but widespread fog formation is not anticipated at this
time.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

An upper low will continue to drift around the Southwest CONUS
over the better part of the next week, keeping rather benign
conditions over the forecast area during this time. Weak mid level
ridging will build over the region tomorrow, while a weak ripple
in the flow moves across northern Texas late tomorrow/tomorrow
night. The result will be increasing rain chances across the
southern half of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours. Moisture will be pretty limited during this time
frame...so, while rain chances are likely, amounts are expected to
generally remain less than a tenth of an inch for any one
location. Enough instability could develop during the afternoon
to allow for an isolated thunderstorm or two, but chances are low
(<20%). Otherwise, another day with near normal temperatures and
mainly light winds are expected.

Amplified northerly flow aloft will then develop on Sunday as a
strong mid level trough drops southeastward out of central Canada.
this will help drive a stronger cold front into the region on
Sunday. bringing temperatures down below normal for a couple of
days, with a light freeze possible in some locations by Monday
morning...especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. This frontal passage should remain relatively dry,
though a few very light showers appear possible along and just
behind the front Sunday.

A quick warming trend will commence on Tuesday as southwest
surface winds return and mid level ridging builds back over the
region. elevated fire weather concerns could also return on
Tuesday with the warming temperatures, increasing winds, and min
RH values dropping into the 20-30% range. Guidance has better
agreement on the upper low finally being absorbed back into the
primary flow aloft and ejecting out over the Plains in the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. When the low finally comes out, this
will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances by mid to
late week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

MVFR ceilings will improve to area-wide VFR later this afternoon
and evening. Scattered to broken mid/upper-level clouds will
persist through much of the TAF period. Breezy northerly winds
early this afternoon will gradually trend downward through the
remainder of the afternoon and become nearly calm overnight
tonight. Winds remain generally light through the end of the TAF
period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  69  47  63 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  71  51  67 /   0  10  10   0
MLC   47  70  50  66 /   0  30  20   0
BVO   39  70  43  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  70  44  63 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   41  67  45  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   43  68  48  62 /   0  20  10   0
MIO   40  67  43  58 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  68  49  63 /   0  20  10   0
HHW   52  69  53  67 /   0  60  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67


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