Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 172325
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty south winds will decrease overnight, but still remain breezy
for all but the far NW terminals - BVO/TUL/RVS. Cold front will
approach from the NW and move through these NW terminals
overnight. Winds will gradually shift to southwesterly then more
northerly after the front passes through then stalls. Not a whole
lot of moisture with the front, so a lower cloud deck not expected
with frontal passage. For all other terminals, breezy conditions
through the period, gradually shifting to more southwesterly.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016/
This afternoon a cold font was located from Eastern Colorado
through Central Kansas up into the upper Midwest while a dryline
extended southwestward from the front through Central
Kansas...Western Oklahoma into West Texas. To the south and east
of these boundaries...a tight pressure gradient persisted between
surface high over the Gulf Coast States and the associated surface
low with the frontal boundary. These conditions created southerly
winds gusting 20 to 40+ mph with well above seasonal average
temperatures across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
Thus...will let the current wind advisory ride as is through 01z.
This evening the cold front is expected to continue to push
southeastward and overtake the dryline as the surface low and a mid
level shortwave shifts off to the east. By early morning
Tuesday...the cold front is forecast move into far Northeast
Oklahoma...northwest of Interstate 44. In response
tonight...mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and warm
temperatures should persist over the CWA. Winds should relax some
overnight with gusts remaining in the 10 t0 20 mph range.
During the day Tuesday...the cold front is progged to sag
southeast between Interstate 44 and Interstate 40 and stall over
the region. South of the front...well above seasonal average
temperatures should continue over Southeast Oklahoma into Western
Arkansas. Tuesday night an upper level shortwave looks to push out
of the Rocky Mountain Region and into the Plains with the frontal
boundary retreating up near the Oklahoma Kansas border. This will
help to develop thunderstorm chances late Tuesday night into
Wednesday...mainly across parts of Northeast Oklahoma into
Northwest Arkansas near the boundary.
The cold front gets a push from the eastward moving upper level
shortwave during the day Wednesday exiting the CWA by Thursday
morning. Thunderstorm chances increase over the region Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night with the movement of the front.
Precip should taper off from northwest to southeast late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning as the trof axis to the upper
level wave shifts off to the east. Behind the departing front and
shortwave...more seasonal like conditions with highs in the
60s/70s within a drier airmass will be possible into the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 83 64 82 / 0 10 20 30
FSM 69 89 67 87 / 0 10 10 30
MLC 70 88 68 86 / 0 10 10 30
BVO 64 79 57 77 / 10 10 20 20
FYV 68 83 63 81 / 10 10 20 40
BYV 69 83 64 81 / 10 10 20 40
MKO 69 85 66 84 / 0 10 10 40
MIO 68 80 61 78 / 10 10 20 40
F10 69 86 66 84 / 0 10 10 40
HHW 68 88 67 87 / 0 10 10 20
OK...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>059.