Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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697
FXUS64 KTSA 282010
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this
afternoon primarily within an instability axis that roughly
extends along the I-44 corridor at present, aided by a slow moving
outflow boundary from morning convection in Kansas. The storms
should largely remain below severe levels owing to a lack of deep
layer shear, but instability alone could produce gusty, near
severe winds in the strongest storms.

Attention then turns to the ongoing development of thunderstorms
in southwest Nebraska and northeast Kansas that should eventually
transition into an MCS overnight. Thunderstorms are currently
developing in response to a mid level disturbance near the
Wyoming/South Dakota/Nebraska border, likely pushing toward the
southeast through the night. Any thunderstorm complex should
arrive well after midnight, continuing past dawn Friday morning
across at least a portion of the forecast area. Additional
afternoon thunderstorm developing will be possible, primarily
across the southern half of the area, along any remnant boundaries
from the expected MCS and/or the weak front that will push
through the area as well. Another thunderstorm complex is
expected Saturday morning with another disturbance that will pass
through the region in the persistent northwest flow aloft.

Thunderstorm chances will linger across the eastern half of the
forecast area into Sunday, but largely dry conditions will prevail
thereafter as the upper level ridge builds back into the Southern
Plains. Temperatures will likely push triple digits by the middle
to latter part of next week, with some potential for heat
headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  89  72  89 /  50  50  40  50
FSM   74  91  74  91 /  30  50  40  50
MLC   73  91  72  92 /  20  30  30  40
BVO   70  87  69  88 /  50  60  40  50
FYV   69  86  67  86 /  30  60  40  50
BYV   70  85  68  86 /  30  50  40  50
MKO   73  89  72  90 /  30  50  40  50
MIO   71  87  68  86 /  40  60  40  50
F10   73  90  72  91 /  40  40  40  40
HHW   73  93  73  95 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22



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