Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 261728
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Thunderstorms will develop across central OK later this afternoon
and impact the eastern OK TAF sites mainly from 00-04Z...and
the western AR TAF sites from 02-06Z. All modes of severe weather
will be possible with these storms...especially during the
early evening hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1123 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Mid/upper 50s surface dewpoints have made it to the Red
River...and low-level moisture will continue to increase
this afternoon ahead of the approaching dryline. Hi-res
models have been consistent in developing convection along
the dryline around 4-5 pm with activity moving into our
forecast area toward 6 pm. Initial storms will likely be
discrete supercells...and HRRR updraft helicity tracks
continue to suggest that greatest tornado/large hail threat
will be along and west of an Okemah to Hugo line. This
activity should transition to convective clusters/lines
during the evening...with a hail and damaging wind threat
continuing as storms move into western AR.

Updated products have been sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  69  46  75 /  70  10   0  10
FSM   59  72  49  76 /  80  20   0  10
MLC   58  72  49  77 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   52  67  43  73 /  70  10   0  10
FYV   56  62  46  71 /  80  40   0  10
BYV   57  64  47  68 /  80  50   0  10
MKO   57  69  48  76 /  70  10   0  10
MIO   54  64  46  71 /  90  40   0  10
F10   56  71  48  76 /  60  10   0  10
HHW   60  75  52  78 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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