Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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038
FXUS64 KTSA 060523
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Another challenging cig/vsby forecast for the overnight. Current
indications in the data suggest tonight suggest that tonight`s
concern will be focused more on low cigs and less on fog,
especially compared to last night. Rain will move across KFSM for
the next few hours and will then lift northeast. Satellite shows
patches of low clouds back behind the departing cloud shield
associated with the upper wave. Expect at least periods of MVFR
conditions at the E OK/NW AR sites both ahead of and just behind
approaching cold front. A brief period of IFR conditions is likely
enough to warrant a tempo mention at all W AR TAF sites.
Eventually the low levels will dry out behind the front tomorrow,
and all sites will return to VFR.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 849 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

Southern stream trough currently skirting just to the south of
Oklahoma in Texas...beginning take a more northeasterly track into
northern Louisiana and Arkansas before moving off to the east in
the general flow. Light to moderate rain has been ongoing this
evening across portions of southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. This activity will continue to northeastward, gradually
diminishing by early Tuesday morning. The area may see some patchy
fog develop after midnight, but widespread dense fog is not
expected. Surface cold front associated with northern stream
trough has currently moved into northwest Kansas and will move
into the local area by mid to late morning. Have made minor
updates to pop grids to account for timing and coverage trends...
otherwise, the overall forecast still on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 501 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Complex aviation forecast tonight. Periods of low cigs and
possibly low vsbys as well can be expected tonight at the TAF
sites. An upper storm system lifting northeast over the region
will bring rain mainly to KFSM tonight. A cold front will push
into the region from northwest to southeast on Tuesday in the wake
of the exiting system, finally bringing a return to VFR conditions
to all sites by afternoon.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low currently across south central Texas will continue
lifting northeast and weaken as it moves through southern Arkansas
overnight. Rain chances associated with this feature will mostly
be confined to southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight.
Attention turns to the arctic airmass that will impact the region
by midweek. Initial push of cooler air will move into the area
overnight...with the main surge to enter northeast Oklahoma
Wednesday afternoon. Moisture profiles suggest limited chances for
any accumulating precip associated with the broad upper trough
that will pass Wednesday and Wednesday night. Have cut down on qpf
and snow totals from previous forecast...and will have the best
chance for snow across far northeast OK and northwest AR. Once
this airmass settles over the plains...very cold temperatures that
have not been seen in quite sometime can be expected
Thursday...and especially Friday morning where widespread
overnight low temperatures in the teens are expected. Airmass
loses its grip over the plains for the start of the weekend...and
a quick warm-up will ensue. Precip chances will increase some for
the last half of the weekend across southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as moisture increases ahead of the next system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  46  33  38 /  10   0  10  20
FSM   41  51  36  44 /  80   0  10  20
MLC   40  50  36  44 /  40   0  10  10
BVO   34  46  27  37 /  10   0  10  30
FYV   39  46  28  36 /  50   0  10  20
BYV   38  46  29  36 /  70   0  10  30
MKO   38  46  33  40 /  30   0  10  20
MIO   35  44  28  37 /  10   0  10  30
F10   38  47  34  40 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   42  53  40  47 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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