Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THE FOG CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW ARKANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AT FYV/SLG IN LAST HALF
HOUR. FELL AT THIS TIME THAT VSBYS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
WITHIN THE HOUR AND LIKELY CLEAR ALTOGETHER BY NOON.

OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM
INTO NORTHEAST TX RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07







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