Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201744
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDER PRIMARILY 02Z-10Z AS CIGS LOWER AND BECOME MVFR.
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS 12Z-18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPANDING EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
YET TO SEE MEASURABLE RAIN ERN OK MESONET SITES.
LOWERED THUNDER POTENTIAL &  PROB THUNDER GRIDS
INTO JUST ISOLATED RANGE FOR AFTERNOON. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A BIT UNDER CLOUD SHIELD AND RAISED A
BIT FOR FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
PRECIP BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH MVFR CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... CREATING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER... FAIRLY GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE... WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE OUR NEXT TROUBLEMAKER BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  60  75  53 /  40  80  60  10
FSM   80  60  76  57 /  20  70  60  40
MLC   76  61  74  57 /  30  80  60  30
BVO   80  59  76  48 /  40  80  60  10
FYV   76  57  72  52 /  20  80  70  40
BYV   78  57  75  52 /  10  70  80  40
MKO   78  60  74  54 /  30  80  60  20
MIO   80  59  76  51 /  20  70  60  20
F10   75  60  74  55 /  30  80  60  20
HHW   77  61  74  59 /  20  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21





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