000
FXUS64 KTSA 172327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ALTHOUGH WILL
CARRY VCSH FOR THE ARKANSAS TAFS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES...WITH MVFR VSBYS LIKELY...AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS FOR KFYV/KXNA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REMNANT MCV FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BENEATH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES. THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT AN MCS MAY
MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY
MODERATE FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO RESTRENGTHEN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  86  68  87 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   69  87  68  88 /  50  10  20  30
MLC   68  86  68  87 /  30  10  20  30
BVO   65  85  65  86 /  10  10  20  30
FYV   63  83  62  85 /  50  10  20  30
BYV   64  84  63  85 /  50  10  20  30
MKO   67  86  67  87 /  20  10  20  30
MIO   65  85  65  86 /  20  10  20  30
F10   67  85  68  86 /  20  10  20  30
HHW   70  87  69  88 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18