Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 272010
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds continue to linger this afternoon across much of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas in the wake of the cold front and
associated upper level low that brought showers and thunderstorms
to the area yesterday into this morning. These clouds are expected
to continue to erode through the evening hours. Could see the clouds
fill back in or see some fog later tonight into Tuesday morning.

Our attention will then turn to the next storm system that is set to
affect the region. The next upper level low to affect the region will
be over Arizona as day breaks on Tuesday and will slowly eject out
across the plains Wednesday into Thursday morning. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Oklahoma Tuesday
afternoon and move into the eastern part of the state Tuesday evening/night.
The severe potential will continue with these storms into the overnight
hours as the elevated instabilities become favorable as the low level
jet strengthens. Large hail and strong gusty winds will be the concern.

The threat for thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday as the upper level
low and attendant surface system moves across the area. With more than adequate
instability and deep layer shear, the threat for severe weather will continue.
Tornadoes, Large hail and damaging winds will all be possible on Wednesday
afternoon and evening across a good portion of the area. Heavy rain will also
become a concern during this event with 2 to 3 inches possible. The showers
and thunderstorms end on Thursday as the system departs.

The active weather pattern continues with shower and thunderstorm chances returning
over the weekend as the next storm system moves through the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  74  60  75 /  10  10  80  80
FSM   49  76  60  74 /   0  10  40  80
MLC   49  77  63  75 /  10  10  70  80
BVO   44  72  57  74 /   0  10  80  80
FYV   45  72  58  71 /   0  10  40  80
BYV   47  69  55  69 /   0  10  40  70
MKO   47  76  62  73 /  10  10  60  80
MIO   45  72  58  70 /  10  10  70  80
F10   48  75  61  76 /  10  10  80  80
HHW   52  76  63  77 /  10  10  60  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10


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