Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 170837
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
337 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The main items of interest in this morning`s forecast are: 1)
Thunder chances and flooding potential tonight thru Friday night
as we near the end of this unseasonably wet regime, 2) Return to
more typical August heat over the weekend into early next week,
and finally 3) Thunder chances with the next front toward the
middle of next week.

Ongoing MCS should be close to exiting the region by 12Z per
latest short term guidance, so only plan to carry low PoPs in the
far south for today. There`s some indication from the ECMWF and
short term guidance that an MCS will organize to our west tonight
and move into our area Friday morning, while generally weakening.
The GFS has been consistent in suggesting that storms will fire to
our north on Friday afternoon along a boundary in association
with a shortwave trough dropping southeast over the Plains. This
solution has support from the Hi-Res NMM and the 06Z NAM, which is
now even more aggressive than the 00Z run. The QPF signal is
stronger with the Friday night MCS, and there is some concern that
heavy rains tracking over wet soils from the recent rains could
elevate the flood threat.

Once the shortwave trough passes by to our northeast Saturday, mid
level height rises will spell an end to the wet regime, and a
return to more typical August weather for the weekend thru at
least Monday. Aside from isolated afternoon storms, hot and dry
weather will be the rule, with temps returning to seasonal
averages.

Storm chances will return late Tuesday and continue thru the
middle of next week as another frontal boundary makes a push south
down the Plains, thanks to the development of deep cyclonic flow
over the Great Lakes and Northeast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  70  89  72 /  10  10  30  40
FSM   90  71  93  74 /  10   0  30  40
MLC   91  71  91  74 /  10  10  30  40
BVO   89  63  88  67 /   0  10  30  50
FYV   85  63  87  68 /  10   0  20  30
BYV   87  63  90  68 /  10   0  10  30
MKO   88  68  90  72 /  10   0  30  40
MIO   87  64  88  69 /  10   0  10  40
F10   89  70  91  73 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   90  74  93  74 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30


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