Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 151728
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows the widespread lower-
level stratus clouds are beginning to lift and erode away.
Overall, a pleasant day is in store across E. OK and NW AR, with
some scattered high clouds through the day and breezy northerly
winds. Daytime highs today will climb into the low-mid 60s, just a
couple of degrees above seasonal average. The current short-term
forecast remains valid and no significant updates are needed
through this afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A few lingering showers will remain possible this morning
across far southeast Oklahoma as frontal boundary moves into the
ArkLaTx region. Low clouds will begin to slowly push south today
behind front, however increasing high clouds expected into the
afternoon as southwest flow aloft continues. Otherwise, high
temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly above normal with
gusty north winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Surface ridge will build into the region tonight into Saturday
morning with light winds. A few scattered showers will be
possible across far southeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night as a weak upper disturbance approaches from the
southwest.

Upper low, currently developing over the desert Southwest will
remain quasi-stationary over the next several days. Upper trough
progged to dig southeast into the Great Lakes region over the
weekend with a stronger cold front expected on Sunday. Colder
conditions forecast for the start of the work week with a light
freeze possible Monday morning across far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas.

Quick warm up forecast into Tuesday as southwest winds begin to
increase. Could see a slight uptick in fire weather concerns
Tuesday afternoon across northeast Oklahoma with highs in the mid
70s, coupled with min RH values dropping to around 30 percent.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase Wednesday night and
especially into Thursday as upper low approaches from the west.
Instability/moisture will likely be sufficient for scattered
storms on Thursday as low pressure system moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

MVFR ceilings will improve to area-wide VFR later this afternoon
and evening. Scattered to broken mid/upper-level clouds will
persist through much of the TAF period. Breezy northerly winds
early this afternoon will gradually trend downward through the
remainder of the afternoon and become nearly calm overnight
tonight. Winds remain generally light through the end of the TAF
period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  43  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   69  47  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   67  46  70  50 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   65  39  70  44 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   64  39  69  45 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   62  41  68  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   64  43  68  49 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   64  41  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
F10   64  43  68  49 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   67  51  69  52 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67


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