Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291553
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING AND MANAGED TO BRIEFLY CHANGE WIND DIRECTION AND PRODUCE
SOME MID CLOUDS. OTHER THAN THAT... THERE WAS NO CONSEQUENCE. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT.
TODAY HOWEVER... WILL LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THIS WELL AND WILL NOT BE UPDATED
THIS MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
BRIEF MVFR VSBY AT FYV TO START THIS FORECAST PERIOD...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ALL SITES. NERN OK SITES SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN KS/N CENTRAL
OK PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO NERN OK LATE TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED TSRA ALONG/NORTH OF IT. AT THIS TIME...PROBABILITY OF TSRA
AFFECTING ANY ONE SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK BOUNDARY POISED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA
LATER TODAY...WITH LOW END PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT. CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY ALIGNMENT LOOKS GOOD AS THE NRN
ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE AREA. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS THE RETROGRADING RIDGE ALLOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
SLIP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEAN RIDGE
POSITIONING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY
KEEP THE EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND..WHICH SHOULD END RAIN
CHANCES. MODELS HINT AT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE
TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
BEYOND FRIDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-060>062-
     064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06


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