Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191734
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1134 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
High clouds along with breezy southerly winds will remain common
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas into this evening.
During the evening and overnight hours...MVFR ceilings currently
over the far southeast corner of Oklahoma are forecast to lift
northward across the CWA...and look to remain over the region
through the TAF period. East to southerly winds overnight with
much higher south- southwest winds just off the surface will allow
for LLWS to be possible into Saturday morning for all TAF sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1012 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
At mid morning...high level cirrus clouds were streaming southward
within the upper level northwesterly flow...while low level
stratus clouds were slowly lifting northward within the low level
southward flow on the backside of the surface high pressure over
the Gulf Coast States. In response...southerly surface winds have
begun to increase with temps in the 30s/lower 40s across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

Through this afternoon...gusty southerly winds in the 15 to 30 mph
range across the CWA should continue to transport low level
moisture back into the region. These conditions will aid in
afternoon temperatures warming into the 50s for most
locations...as well as creating a limited fire danger over parts
of the CWA. Also this afternoon...scattered high clouds should
continue to pass through the region while the low clouds remain
confined to far Southeast Oklahoma. Current thinking is that the
low clouds should begin to spread over the CWA this evening.

For the morning update...have increased wind grids slightly while
adding minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/sky/grids to account
for latest conditions and trends. The rest of the current forecast
seems to be handling well at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  43  66  54 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   56  38  64  51 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   56  45  66  57 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   56  37  65  48 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   53  39  60  51 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   54  41  62  52 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   55  42  66  54 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   54  40  62  52 /   0   0  10  10
F10   56  44  66  55 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   54  42  66  56 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....20



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