Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 041117
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15-16Z
ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR...ENDING FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS SKIES CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH ALL AREAS TRANSITIONING TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE 00Z. SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH POTENTIAL RETURN OF IFR TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY OFFSET POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of fog/drizzle continue across much of the area this morning.
An additional round of light showers will likely spread into
eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this morning in association
with very strong 140 knot upper jet streak. Precipitation will
likely end by early afternoon as upper trough axis shifts east of
the area.

Cutoff low currently over southern Baja will lift northeast into
the arklatx region on Monday. Areas of rain will likely move into
southeast Oklahoma late monday morning, spreading over the
remainder of the area Monday afternoon/evening. Precipitation
chances will begin to taper off after midnight as upper vort max
lifts into the Ohio river valley. Behind system, surge of
cooler/drier air will filter into the region during the day
Tuesday.

Much stronger push of very cold arctic air will move through on
Wednesday. Scattered areas of light snow will be possible across
northeast Oklahoma behind front with snow spreading into northwest
Arkansas Wednesday afternoon/evening. Minor accumulations of one
half to one inch will be possible across far northeast Oklahoma
and especially in the higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas.

Behind front, very cold conditions are expected by Thursday morning
with brisk north winds and wind chills in the single digits.
Strong 1040 mb surface high will build into the region by Friday
morning with lows in the teens likely over much of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Slow warming trend into the early
part of next weekend, ahead of fast moving clipper system, but
gusty south winds will make it feel colder than otherwise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  34  53  37 /  70  10  20  50
FSM   51  38  49  40 /  30  10  70  80
MLC   54  39  50  37 /  20  10  70  60
BVO   53  26  53  32 /  80   0  20  30
FYV   49  29  51  36 /  50  10  30  70
BYV   48  30  49  36 /  50  10  30  80
MKO   52  36  49  37 /  40  10  30  60
MIO   51  30  53  36 /  80   0  20  60
F10   54  37  50  36 /  20  10  30  50
HHW   53  42  48  42 /  20  20  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14



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