Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 231049
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
549 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection now entering eastern OK will continue to spread
eastward through the morning. The most likely aviation impact will
be across SE OK nearer the stronger storms. Thinking is that once
this convection dissipates then any redevelopment will be most
likely west of the area with storms possibly spreading into the
area early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The synoptic features from yesterday remain largely in play and
nearly in the same locations early this morning. The one
exception is that the ridge of high pressure has shifted east
southeast some...becoming more positively tilted as the longwave
trof settled over the Desert Southwest United States. Also this
morning...the dryline off the surface low over Eastern Colorado
continued to extend southward into far Eastern New Mexico.
Scattered convection that had developed yesterday along the
dryline had formed into a MCS across Southern Oklahoma...
approaching Southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...
cloudy conditions with east to southeasterly winds were common.

The MCS will continue to push eastward into/across Southeast
Oklahoma this morning and potentially spreading into Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. An instability
axis remained just west of the CWA this morning...which could help
to weaken the overall intensity of the MCS...however gusty to
locally damaging winds could be possible with this activity.
Also...additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the CWA through this evening as any leftover outflow
boundaries from the morning activity remain over the region.
Breezy southerly winds transporting moisture back into the region
combined with near seasonal average temperatures underneath a
destabilizing atmosphere could allow for any thunderstorm activity
through this evening to become strong to severe with large hail
and locally damaging winds being the main threats. The greater
severe potential though should remain west of the CWA...closer to
the dryline.

Also this afternoon...additional convection is expected to fire
along/near the dryline again...which will have the potential to
cluster together into another MCS and move into the CWA overnight
tonight. The instability axis overnight tonight looks to be a
little more eastward than where it is this morning. This will aid
in a continued severe potential overnight tonight over the
CWA...with locally damaging winds being possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...the longwave trof is forecast to stall
over the Southwest United States with west to southwesterly upper
level flow over the Plains. Weak impulses within this flow moving
across the Plains along with the dryline remaining over Western
Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will give a "rinse-wash-
repeat" for thunderstorm chances each day over the CWA. Any
convection along the dryline could form into an MCS at night and
approach/move into the region...with additional daytime
thunderstorm chances as the weak impulses interact with any
leftover outflow boundaries. These conditions along with a
continued unstable atmosphere will allow at least limited severe
potentials through Thursday over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

Latest model solutions continue to show the wave over the
Southwest United States finally lifting into the Plains
Friday...thus increasing thunderstorm chances again for the CWA.
Indications are that the wave could possibly move into the region
during the morning hours which could help to limit severe
potential...though with this several days away...will continue to
monitor latest data as this set up could likely change back-and-
forth several times. For the upcoming weekend...thunderstorm
chances will continue to be possible as another wave looks to
quickly develop and lift out of the Southwest United States into
the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  69  84  71 /  50  40  30  40
FSM   83  67  83  71 /  40  30  30  30
MLC   82  69  83  71 /  60  30  30  30
BVO   80  67  83  69 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   80  64  80  67 /  40  30  40  30
BYV   81  63  80  66 /  50  30  40  30
MKO   81  67  83  70 /  50  30  30  40
MIO   81  66  81  68 /  50  30  30  30
F10   80  68  83  70 /  50  30  30  40
HHW   82  69  83  71 /  60  30  30  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07


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