Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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956
FXUS64 KTSA 162030
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
230 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A compact upper cyclone was across northeast KS this afternoon
with a well-defined dryslot stretching across southern/eastern OK
into southwestern MO. Precipitation will be east of the forecast
area tonight...with enough wrap-around moisture to maintain mostly
cloudy conditions across our northern sections. Temps by Tuesday
morning should fall into the 30s for most locations.

Expect a lead wave to eject from the broad upper cyclone across
the southwestern states Tuesday into Wednesday. Enough moisture
should be present to bring a chance of showers into southeast OK.
Instability appears quite limited...so will leave any mention of
thunder out of the forecast at this time. The main body of the
upper cyclone is forecast to move through the southern Plains by
Thursday...although it`s current track would keep any significant
precipitation to our south and east.

The active upper pattern continues for the remainder of the week
and into the weekend...with another strong upper cyclone progged
across the southern Plains by next Sunday. Have bumped up PoPs a
bit with this system...and thermal fields at this time suggest all
liquid.

Stuck fairly close to blended solution for temperatures over the
next week...with a warming trend late this week followed by a
slight cooldown for the weekend. Overall...temperatures should
remain above average for this time of week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  51  35  55 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   39  55  39  55 /   0   0  20  20
MLC   35  54  35  55 /   0   0  20  10
BVO   29  51  28  55 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   33  50  31  54 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   37  50  33  54 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   34  52  36  55 /   0   0  20  10
MIO   34  48  32  56 /   0   0   0  10
F10   32  52  36  54 /   0   0  20  10
HHW   40  55  42  54 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....18



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