000
FXUS64 KTSA 142324
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIMITED THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT MAINLY OVER EASTERN OK...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ARRIVING AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RECENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THIS FEATURE... WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION... TEMPERATURES WILL BACK
OFF A BIT... BECOMING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS THE RETREATING
UPPER RIDGE IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES... AND
ALSO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF TYPICAL LATE SPRING MCS ACTIVITY
TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES NOT STRAYING TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD BACK IN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THAT WILL COME A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14