Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 222045
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
345 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The center of TC Cindy was near Shreveport LA this afternoon. The
system continues north but will soon be encountering increasing
westerly flow aloft, ahead of a shortwave trough diving down out
of Canada. This will pick up the system, sharply recurving to the
northeast over Arkansas tonight into Friday. As has been stated
previously, since our area will be on the western side of the
cyclone there will be no impact from this system, aside from the
increased cloud cover today.

A frontal boundary in association with the shortwave trough to our
north will push thru the region on Friday, bringing shower and
thunderstorm chances. The best chance for severe hail/wind, albeit
marginal at best, will be down over SE OK Friday afternoon where
temps will get fairly hot ahead of the front. The ECMWF suggests
there is also MCS potential in the NW flow Friday night into
Saturday morning, so some higher chance PoPs were extended during
this time frame before ending sometime Saturday morning. The
remainder of the weekend looks fairly quiet, as data now suggests
that the secondary reinforcing front will come thru without much
fanfare.

The evolution of the upper air pattern over the CONUS next week
still has some considerable uncertainty. What is agreed upon is NW
flow and below average temps to start the week, after that the GFS
and ECMWF go in different directions. The GFS develops troughing
across the NW quarter of the nation with zonal or SW flow over our
area, while the ECMWF tends to hold onto NW flow a bit longer
while gradually shifting the southwest CONUS ridge east toward the
Plains. Based on this, the GFS is generally dry while the ECMWF
still shows episodic storm opportunities in the NW flow. Based on
the uncertainty and poor run to run consistency of the ECMWF, I
have elected to maintain a dry forecast for the most part next
week. Temps either way should rebound back into the 90s by mid to
late week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  86  61  85 /   0  50  30  10
FSM   74  88  65  86 /  10  50  40  20
MLC   71  88  64  84 /  10  50  40  20
BVO   66  83  58  83 /  10  50  20  10
FYV   68  82  59  80 /  10  50  30  10
BYV   69  81  59  81 /  10  50  20  10
MKO   71  86  62  84 /   0  50  30  20
MIO   69  83  58  83 /  10  50  10  10
F10   69  85  62  83 /   0  50  40  20
HHW   73  93  68  84 /  10  30  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30


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