Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 212245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
545 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016



VFR conditions should prevail at all terminals through the period.
Some temporary MVFR visibilities will be possible toward daybreak
at FYV/ROG, much like last night, although the fog should not be
as impactful due to the location of the surface ridge. Light winds
will increase from the south tomorrow, especially at the NE OK
terminals, where gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range will be possible
during the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/


The upper flow pattern over the CONUS is forecast to remain
progressive and less amplified over the upcoming week. The
shortwave trough that brought Wednesday`s cold front will move off
the Eastern seaboard this weekend, while ridging slides east over
the Plains. South winds will return as the associated surface
ridge slides east and lee troughing organizes over the High
Plains. As such, expected a warming trend thru early next week with
highs climbing above average, though not as warm as what was
observed early this week. The next progressive wave will slide
thru the Central Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. The
associated Pacific front will bring potential for thunderstorms as
it interacts with returning low level moisture. Cooling behind
this front may knock temps back to near normal as suggested by the
12z ECMWF, but it will be brief as ridging aloft slides overhead
to close out the week. Temps in general will be above average
next week, but once again not as warm as what we`ve seen this past

Interesting to note that models point to another powerful
extended jet across the North Pacific in the 7 to 10 day time
frame. This has happened already this Fall /ie a rare EF2 tornado
along the Oregon coast/ but significant buckling of the pattern
has not occurred thus far. If buckling of this jet occurs,
significant amplification of the downstream pattern over the CONUS
will result, which could bring some big weather changes. Stay





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