Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 141729
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cu field through the afternoon will yield periodic low VFR
ceilings with brief MVFR ceilings across far NW AR. Focus this
evening through overnight will be on passing cold front and
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Flight impacts are likely at
all terminals though are not likely to last more than 2 - 4 hours
before returning to VFR levels. Gusty north winds prevail Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1111 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Area temp / dewpoints all running 3 - 5 degrees higher than this
time yesterday continuing the trend of warmer temps and increasing
moisture. 12z soundings support the forecast highs assuming we get
a more substantial afternoon Cu field to help slow the warm up.

Forecast continues to remain on track with the frontal timing
across the forecast area starting early evening in NE OK and
clearing western AR early Sun morning. Forecast soundings across
NE OK ahead of the front show sufficient instability and shear to
warrant sever sever storms, however the primary limiting factor
continues to be the likelihood of updrafts quickly becoming
elevated as the front surges southeastward. A narrow and brief
corridor of severe storm potential is possible to precede the
eventual frontal surge primarily northwest of I-44. Once the front
accelerates the isallobaric induced winds may be just as strong
as any winds with the increasingly elevated thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  53  67  41 /  10  90  10   0
FSM   90  62  69  46 /   0  80  40   0
MLC   90  55  66  43 /   0  90  20   0
BVO   91  52  66  36 /  10  90   0   0
FYV   86  54  61  37 /   0  90  40   0
BYV   87  52  61  42 /   0  80  50   0
MKO   90  55  67  41 /   0  90  20   0
MIO   88  52  63  37 /  10  90  10   0
F10   90  55  66  43 /   0  90  10   0
HHW   90  58  69  45 /   0  80  40   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



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