000
FXUS64 KTSA 140233
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
933 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS TODAY AND SOW TO COOL OFF IN SOME AREA THIS
EVENING WITH A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE HOWEVER AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLWS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KFSM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND WILL
PERISST UNTIL MID MORNING TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
35 TO 45 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SWING FROM MORNING LOWS
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY. VERY WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL HOLD TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.  TUESDAY LIKELY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. BREEZY AND VERY MILD TUESDAY NIGHT.

GOOD MOISTURE RETURN WILL FEED UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HIGHEST POP SOUTHEAST OK WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST AR.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE ABOUT SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES AN
ENERGETIC COLD FRONT OUR WAY FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS IN SOME AGREEMENT BUT STILL
FAR ENOUGH APART TO GENERATE TIMING DIFFICULTIES.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  89  68  80 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   58  90  62  79 /   0   0  10  60
MLC   62  87  67  76 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   55  89  65  80 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   55  85  63  76 /   0   0  10  40
BYV   57  86  63  76 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   59  87  65  78 /   0   0  10  60
MIO   59  88  64  80 /   0   0  10  20
F10   61  87  66  78 /   0   0  10  50
HHW   58  86  63  76 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99