Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290408
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CHANGE FOR THE 06Z FORECAST WAS TO INSERT PROB30`S FOR STORM
POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WEAK FRONT ACRS SE OK/W
CNTRL AR...AFFECTING THE KMLC AND KFSM TAF SITES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30


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