Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 281715
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1115 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 18Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the forecast period. A cold fropa
today will leave drier conditions in the boundary layer, with just
some passing high clouds. SW winds will gust in the 20 to 25 kt
range this afternoon, but will back off quickly by sunset.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1029 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Broad and deep cyclonic flow is in place aloft over the central
part of the country today. Embedded within this flow are two
potent PV maxes, one over the Northern Plains, and another now
moving thru the basal portion of the longwave trough across
Northern TX. The lift in advance of the southern system will soon
push east of the forecast area, taking the rain with it. Much
drier and windy conditions are occurring behind the Pacific front,
and this will elevate fire spread conditions. The morning rains
will mitigate the fire start potential however.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 542 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ceilings and visibilities may occasionally be reduced in showers
and thunderstorms early this morning at the southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas sites. By late morning, VFR conditions will
prevail at all sites and will then persist for the rest of the
forecast period. Breezy southwest winds will gust to over 20 knots
at times this afternoon before diminishing this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Busy morning with storms finally moving into our area after
midnight. Severe threat across our area is fading...as most
intense part of the bowing segment has now moved east of
Choctaw/Pushmataha counties. Highest observed winds were around 44
mph on the mesonet site at Hugo...with 36mph at the actual ob
site.

Once these storms move east of the area later this morning...models
are forecasting rapid clearing from the west. Numerical guidance
came in several degrees higher than the blended models and this
seems reasonable given full sun in the western counties most of
the day. Pacific front/dryline is still across western OK this
morning...with dewpoints in the teens and 20s behind the boundary
/18 at Woodward and 21 at Gage/. We considered whether red flag
criteria would be met...given expected strong winds and min RH
values between 25-30 percent. This will need to be monitored
today. There is a better chance of meeting criteria southwest of
Tulsa...and there is still an ongoing chance of rain. Most
mesonet sites indicate that precipitation so far has been less
than a half inch across SE OK but this will obviously have an
effect on fire danger.

Next chance for precip will this weekend. 28/00z ECMWF solution is
a complete change from earlier runs...generating quite a snow
storm by Sunday. However the ECMWF ensemble mean doesn`t agree
with the operational run...and now the latest GFS has a warm
enough thermal profile to support all rain. We won`t make any
dramatic changes to going forecast at this point. As always...it
will be interesting to follow the extended guidance over the next
few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  40  63  35 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  40  69  38 /  90   0   0   0
MLC   68  41  66  36 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   67  34  62  32 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   65  37  63  32 /  50   0   0   0
BYV   61  42  64  37 /  90   0   0   0
MKO   65  41  64  34 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   66  39  62  32 /  10   0   0   0
F10   67  40  64  33 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   71  45  68  38 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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