Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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196
FXUS64 KTSA 160337
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
937 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front was entering into Northeast Oklahoma late this
evening with scattered areas of light rain showers developing
along/near the front. Out ahead of the boundary...warm
temps...breezy southerly winds and dewpoints around 60 degrees
were common. However...behind the front...much drier
air...northerly winds and falling temperatures were observed.

Overnight tonight...the cold front will continue to push
southeast through the CWA with rain chances spreading east and
southeast with the movement of the front. Latest meso-analysis
indicates a weak band of instability over far Northeast Oklahoma
into Northwest Arkansas ahead of the front. This could allow for
isolated thunder to be possible over these locations as the front
moves through tonight. Have adjusted hourly pops to account for
the timing of the precip potential as the front moves through. It
looks like the boundary should be exiting the CWA during the
morning hours Friday.

Also during the night...breezy southerly winds should continue
ahead of the front with temps slowly cooling. Behind the
front...gusty northerly winds will transport much drier air into
the region with temperatures falling into the 30s in Northeast
Oklahoma to the upper 40s near the Red River within the vicinity
of the front by Friday morning. These conditions could allow for
at least a limited fire danger to remain possible overnight as
much of the CWA looks to receive less than a quarter inch of
rainfall. Thus...for the evening update...have adjusted hourly
temps/dewpoint/wind grids to account for the timing of the
drier/cooler air overnight. The rest of the forecast seems to be
handling well at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  47  35  58 /  40  10  50  40
FSM   46  51  38  54 /  60  20  70  80
MLC   44  49  37  59 /  20  10  80  70
BVO   33  45  31  62 /  40   0  30  30
FYV   39  45  32  49 /  70  20  50  80
BYV   37  43  33  50 /  70  20  50  80
MKO   41  47  38  58 /  40  10  70  60
MIO   34  45  33  56 /  60  10  40  40
F10   39  46  37  59 /  30  10  70  40
HHW   49  51  39  54 /  20  20  90  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....30



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