Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 130854
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHERN KS
THROUGH CENTRAL TX AS UPPER JET PRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE EXPANDS THIS PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS IS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY / TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES FOR THE REGION.
THE STRONG FRONTAL SURGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EASTWARD POTENTIAL
OF THE MIXING DRYLINE...WHICH WILL ALSO TEND TO FOCUS THE FAVORED
TRIPLE POINT ZONE MORE SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE TORNADIC RISK
WITH THESE STORMS IS NON-ZERO...THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE
FROM LARGE HAIL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL CAPE
IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. THE UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW ORGANIZED ZONES OF DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE
SEVERE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN ALONG OR JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE
STRONG FRONT BEFORE THE UPDRAFTS ARE UNDERCUT. THE HIGHER
CONDITIONAL TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE DRYLINE AND TRACK EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE
COVERAGE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LOW...THE
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE HIGH ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM
HODOGRAPHS VERIFY WHICH HAVE SUBSTANTIAL AND FAVORABLE CURVATURE
PROFILES. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVERALL WILL BE HIGHER FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

STRONG NORTH WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
WITH A RAW DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES ALSO LIKELY TO BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OK / NW AR. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW A LATE SEASON FREEZE TO OCCUR...WITH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA POSSIBLY SEEING A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPS MODERATE FOR MID WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  38  47  29 /  80  70  40   0
FSM   75  48  50  31 /  60  90  40  10
MLC   76  41  46  30 /  40  80  20   0
BVO   77  39  46  25 /  80  30  50   0
FYV   71  39  43  26 /  60  90  50  10
BYV   72  39  42  26 /  60  80  50  10
MKO   74  41  46  28 /  50  90  40   0
MIO   74  37  44  26 /  70  80  50   0
F10   75  40  45  29 /  70  90  30   0
HHW   75  46  50  31 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





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