Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 312046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




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