Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
REGION... AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON... WITH IFR CEILINGS BECOMING LIKELY THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WITH FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ITS ADVANCE. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM MUCH TODAY AND THE COLD RAIN WILL
MAKE FOR A RAW EARLY WINTER DAY.

THIS WAVE PASSES WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS BUT TRACKS FURTHER
SOUTH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY / FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT.

TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE CHANGING
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK W/ RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND THE INITIAL DOWNSTREAM TROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIP THE AREA MONDAY / TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR VERY COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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