Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 271055
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions should prevail at all terminals through the period.
Thunderstorms ongoing this morning in SE KS will be near enough to
BVO/TUL/RVS to include a VCTS, but currently think they will stay
E of these terminals so will not include Tempo groups at this
time. May have to watch the NW AR terminals closely to see if any
TSRA mention becomes necessary, but will not include for now.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
The bulk of the near-term model guidance suggests
shower/thunderstorm development across southeast Kansas over the
next few hours...with the activity expanding south into northeast
Oklahoma during the morning hours. This appears to be tied to
increasing isentropic lift...best seen on NAM 310-315K analysis.
Will have slight chances pops for the morning hours for now...but
will monitor for possible increase in PoPs and coverage.
Next upper wave currently moving across the northern Rockies will
push into the Plains later today...eventually bringing a weak
frontal boundary into parts of the area later Friday and Friday
night. Overall moisture is still expected to remain rather
limited...so have continued to keep PoPs generally in the 20-40%
range...with the best chances setting up for Friday night.
Mid-level heights rise a bit later this weekend...with
temperatures running near or just a bit above average going into
next week. A broad upper level low will likely develop along the
Gulf coast states...but it appears to be too far south to
significantly impact our weather.