Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
LAST NIGHT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WV IMAGERY AND MODEL TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW
DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE LOW CLOUD DECK...THUS INSOLATION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ERODE IT FROM ABOVE...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS MUCH
AT ALL WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUD LAYER RATHER THIN AND
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z...BECOMING VFR ALL
STATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   83  68  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   86  69  87  66 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   85  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   82  63  84  63 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   78  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   85  67  88  67 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   83  66  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
F10   85  69  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   84  68  89  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30



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