000
FXUS64 KTSA 141039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AFTER 6Z FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 100 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION...TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATE THIS WEEKEND...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR WOULD LIKELY POSE AT
LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE STALLING
NEAR THE RED RIVER BY TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10