000
FXUS64 KTSA 161531
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1031 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AS OF 10 AM MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CONTINUES TO
MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. A LIMITED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL REMAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. IF ANY STORM COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO MID 70S POSSIBLE. THUS...MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO
TWEAK POP/WX/SKY/TEMP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  66  84  68 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   75  64  82  66 /  60  40  10  10
MLC   74  64  82  67 /  50  20  10  10
BVO   77  62  85  65 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   69  60  79  63 /  60  30  20  10
BYV   70  61  80  64 /  50  30  20  10
MKO   75  64  82  67 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   74  62  84  67 /  40  20  10  10
F10   76  64  83  67 /  40  10  10  10
HHW   73  65  80  67 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07