Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 161753
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1253 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection will remain possible this afternoon across
the CWA ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the CWA this
evening and overnight tonight. Additional thunderstorms are
forecast along/near this front as it moves into the region.
Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible within any
thunderstorm activity this afternoon and again with precip along
the front. Otherwise...through tonight... scattered to broken mid
and high clouds should be common across the region. Behind the
precip...through the morning hours Thursday...lingering MVFR
ceiling may continue into parts of the region with the greater
potential over Southeast OKlahoma and Northwest Arkansas. For now
will carry scattered to broken MVFR for this time period for
these locations.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1050 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
At mid morning...a cold front was positioned from the Texas
Panhandle to Central Kansas with an ongoing MCS moving eastward
across Eastern Kansas into Missouri. The southern flank of this
activity had begun to shift more southeast toward Northeast
Oklahoma along an outflow boundary. Also this morning...scattered
rain showers continued to lift northeast across Southeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas within an axis of deep layer
moisture out ahead of the cold front.

Through this afternoon...scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible across the CWA. The greater potential is expected
to be near the far northeast corner of Oklahoma associated with
the outflow of the MCS and also within the deep layer moisture
axis across Southeast Oklahoma to Northwest Arkansas. Increasing
instability and shear values through the afternoon hours will
allow for a slight risk of severe potentials. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary threats for the CWA and with also
an isolated tornado potential mainly along and north of Interstate
44 where 0-1km shear values look to be maximized ahead of the
front. Also...with the precipitable water values around 2
inches...periods of heavy rainfall will again be possible within
any thunderstorm activity.

Additional thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight as
the cold front moves into Northeast Oklahoma. Latest short term
model solutions continue to push back the timing of the front into
the CWA around 02-04z time frame. Severe potentials will remain
possible with all modes of severe weather again possible through
the evening hours and should decrease overnight.

Clouds...breezy southerly winds and convection coverage across
the CWA this afternoon should keep temps in the mid 80s to low 90s
for most locations. These temps combined with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s for much of the region will aid in heat index
values getting close to advisory criteria. A few locations may
briefly reach criteria and will continue to monitor conditions for
any update needing headlines. For the morning update...have made a
few adjustments to pops based on ongoing trends and tweaked
temp/dewpoint/sky/wind grids to account for latest observations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  72  92  70 /  40  70  10  20
FSM   89  76  90  72 /  50  60  40  10
MLC   87  76  91  73 /  60  60  30  20
BVO   91  68  90  65 /  50  80  10  20
FYV   85  72  86  64 /  50  60  30  10
BYV   87  72  87  64 /  50  60  30  10
MKO   88  72  90  70 /  60  60  20  20
MIO   88  69  87  65 /  60  70  10  10
F10   87  72  90  71 /  40  60  10  20
HHW   89  77  91  74 /  30  70  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20


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