Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 180810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG
STALLED FRONT. ALTHOUGH MCS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING...ANY
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OR POTENTIAL MCV THAT IS GENERATED WILL SUPPORT
LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION
...LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MAY KEEP HIGH TEMPS COOLER
THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST GIVEN THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF
MCS. A FEW MINOR CHANGES WITH TEMPS/POPS MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. UPPER
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MID/LATE WEEK WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/DRY
CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH VALUES IN THE
100-104 DEG RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER RIDGE
HOPEFULLY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN/SHIFT EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  98  76 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   95  73  97  74 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   94  74  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   96  71  99  71 /  20  20  20  10
FYV   91  72  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   90  73  94  74 /  20  20  20  10
MKO   94  72  96  73 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   95  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  10
F10   94  72  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   95  72  97  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




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