000
FXUS64 KTSA 160450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CONDITIONS HAVE TEMPORARILY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...PRIMARILY IMPACTING KMLC AND KFSM.
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO AFFECT
A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MAINLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAY STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

HAVE MADE NUMEROUS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KMLC AND KFSM TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING. AREAWIDE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS BECOMING
IFR OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK...WITH THE ACTIVITY
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AR THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING INTO A MORE DEFINED LOW CENTER...WHICH WILL
VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN AN INFLUENCE ON THE
REGIONAL WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AR IS OPERATING IN AN UNSTABLE YET
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW CENTER. EXPANSIVE CLOUDS / PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH
RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. CURRENT DATA FAVORS THE NECESSITY OF
APPRECIABLE SFC BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STORMS GIVEN THE CAPPED NATURE
OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND THE CLOSEST BOUNDARY TO OUR AREA WILL BE
THE SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
ALONG THIS ZONE FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH THE DRYLINE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PASSING SPEED MAX
AIDING INTO STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SHEAR/INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS THAT MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

STORM OUTFLOW AND/OR A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOK TO BE IN THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AND AGAIN STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND VEER CONSIDERABLY...WITH THIS SCENARIO
FAVORING SVR STORMS INITIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH A
TRANSITION TOWARD HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD.

STORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY PENDING THE SOUTHWARD PUSH
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO
UPPER RIDGING AND LESS ACTIVE BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  78  66  84 /  70  30  10  10
FSM   64  74  64  80 /  70  60  30  10
MLC   63  74  65  80 /  70  40  10  10
BVO   62  79  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   61  73  60  80 /  70  50  30  10
BYV   60  72  61  82 /  60  50  30  10
MKO   63  75  63  82 /  70  50  10  10
MIO   63  77  63  85 /  50  40  20  10
F10   63  75  65  81 /  70  30  10  10
HHW   63  76  65  80 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18