Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191116
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cluster of storms to the west of BVO, TUL and RVS might affect
aircraft operations thru the morning hours. In addition, some
patchy fog may reduce vsbys blo VFR for a short time this morning
at KXNA and KROG. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and a windy
afternoon. Wind gusts 20 to 25 kts are possible at the NE OK
sites. Windy conditions will continue overnight, but will be
slightly weaker than during the daytime.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days,
within a pattern which features a large longwave trough in the
west and a building ridge in the east. Early morning water
vapor/satellite imagery suggest an area of ascent/isentropic lift
associated with the tail end of an impulse now moving across
Kansas. Elevated storms developed earlier near Woodward and latest
radar show storms forming just southwest of Kansas City to near
Enid. Will include low pops for the morning hours across far
northeast OK. Any elevated convection should move past the area by
mid to late morning.

Strong southerly winds will develop today, though they should
stay below advisory criteria. Even so, gusts to 25-30 mph will be
common from Tulsa and points north and west. Highs will be about
5-10 degrees above average, but overnight lows on Wednesday
morning will be noticeably mild, in the low to mid 70s. This will
be a few degrees below record high lows for Tulsa/Fort Smith for
Wed, but they will be close for Fayetteville. Heat indices
approach the 100 degree mark on Wed afternoon, and it will
definitely feel like summertime.

Surface cold front moves into Kansas/northwest Oklahoma by
Wednesday afternoon, with storms forming Wed night across western
Missouri into southeast Kansas. Most of this activity should stay
north of our area. After Wed night, the next chance of
precipitation doesn`t arrive until late in the weekend when
western trough finally begins to make some eastward progress.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  76  93  74 /  20   0  10  10
FSM   93  73  93  73 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   92  76  92  74 /  10   0  10   0
BVO   92  75  93  72 /  20   0  10  20
FYV   87  70  88  69 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   88  71  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   90  74  92  72 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   89  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
F10   92  75  92  73 /  10   0  10   0
HHW   91  74  92  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30


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