Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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784
FXUS64 KTSA 210445
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thundestorms will continue to increase in coverage
through the overnight hours...especially across northeast OK.
This activity will eventually move into northwest AR...generally
after 09-10Z. Periodic thunderstorms can be expected through
the day on Friday...with some severe storms possible. Expect
MVFR conditions to develop into the overnight hours...with some
areas of IFR as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 849 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Shower and thunderstorm activity is set to become more widespread
over the next several hours as the low level jet intensifies and
isentropic lift becomes more pronounced across the region. Elevated
instability and deep layer wind shear will be sufficient for some
of the storms to become strong to severe with large hail the main
concern. Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will also be of
concern as training of storms will be possible.

Have made some adjustments to the grids for Tonight to better reflect
current trends in observations and the latest short term model guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  62  47  57 / 100 100  70  20
FSM   63  74  53  59 /  90  90  80  20
MLC   62  78  49  61 /  70  80  80  10
BVO   53  58  46  57 /  90 100  80  30
FYV   57  64  47  53 /  90 100  90  40
BYV   55  59  47  52 /  90 100  90  50
MKO   59  70  48  57 /  90 100  80  20
MIO   53  57  45  54 /  90 100  90  40
F10   58  71  47  59 /  90 100  70  10
HHW   64  80  52  63 /  20  40  80  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OKZ054>070.

AR...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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