Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201159
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM MLC AND THE W AR TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH MLC/FSM MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL EXCEPT THE NE OK TERMINALS THAT ARE
ALREADY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
PUSHMATAHA...SOUTHERN LATIMER AND SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTIES WHERE
SERIOUS FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED DUE TO 4-5 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONLY PRODUCE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WILL BE ENDING EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE
40 NORTH AND ADD CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN COUNTIES IN
ARKANSAS TO THE WATCH.

RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED IN MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL THEN
BE MOSTLY DRY UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME MINIMAL
POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
TO THE SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TAKES ITS TIME
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST WARM BACK CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT FLOODING
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.

A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN POSSIBLE.

WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22




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