Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 230256
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE AT LONG LAST MOVED OUT OF MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...ACTUALLY GIVING A FEW LUCKY FOLKS IN EASTERN
OK A BRIEF GLIMPSE OF A STRANGE BRIGHT OBJECT LOW IN THE WESTERN
SKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THIS EVENING IN AHEAD OF WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF
CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH... WHICH IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL PREVENT MOST
OF THE AREA FROM SEEING THE MYSTERIOUS YELLOW ORB AGAIN TUESDAY.
RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NW TEXAS AND EXPECT AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER BY LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS UP SOME TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. UPDATED FORECAST
WILL REFLECT WARMER LOWS IN THE SOUTH AND REMOVAL OF EVENING RAIN
CHANCES IN NW ARKANSAS.

NEW 00Z DATA COMING IN STILL SUPPORTS CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FORECAST. LOW IMPACT EVENT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL PASSING THROUGH FAR NWRN AR WITH
ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THOSE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE 04Z-06Z AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THAT
AREA...WITH VFR CIGS REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
HAVE ALREADY SPREAD INTO ERN OK TAF SITES AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS/CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS  FINALLY  CLEARING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUD FROM
SOUTHWEST REVOLVING AROUND UPPER LOW NOT FAR BEHIND.
RAIN CHANCES..MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 TUESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE...HOWEVER COOLING AT ALL LEVELS RESULTS
IN A RISK WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DEPENDING
ON SURFACE TEMP. MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WOULD BE DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS WARM & WINDY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
EASTERN CO / WESTERN KS.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 50-60
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MILES AN
HOUR WITH WIND GUSTS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 30 MILES AN HOUR.
FIRE CONCERNS.

ECMWF/GFS DIFFER FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND IN HANDLING NEXT
WAVE ENERGY. MUCH SHARPER ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK
INTO ENTIRE FORECAST AREA... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OK WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  MEANWHILE  GFS  ESSENTIALLY DRY EXCEPT
EASTERN FRINGE AREAS.  COMPLICATING MATTERS IS ECMWF H850
ZERO LINE BISECTING FORECAST AREA 00Z SUNDAY.  SUPERBLEND
SOLUTION USED... WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD MEDIOCRE RESULTS
WITH SUCH VARIED MODEL OUTCOMES.

WEEKEND FORECAST TO BE BETTER DEFINED IN A FEW DAYS. STAY
TUNED.

GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  49  33  41 /   0  10  30  30
FSM   40  48  35  43 /  10  30  20  20
MLC   40  50  34  43 /  10  30  20  20
BVO   31  47  32  40 /   0  10  30  20
FYV   35  48  32  37 /  10  20  20  30
BYV   36  49  32  37 /  10  20  20  30
MKO   37  50  33  41 /   0  10  20  30
MIO   33  47  33  38 /  10  10  30  40
F10   37  50  33  42 /   0  10  30  20
HHW   46  48  34  45 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99










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