000
FXUS64 KTSA 191648
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS NE OK. STORMS MAY BE
JUST AS INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK INTO
NW AR HOWEVER THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN NUMBER WITH
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT. LESS DEEP MOISTURE AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MUCH LOWER STORM CHANCES
TOWARD SE OK.
FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUPPORT A WINDOW OF FAVORABLE SHEAR
PARAMETERS FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. WHETHER THIS IS
REALIZED WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON EVENTUAL STORM/S/
EVOLUTION...HOWEVER UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL EXISTS IS
NOTEWORTHY.
UPDATED FORECAST WILL REFINE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST FOR RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THE PRESENCE AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SUBTLE...MAY ALSO BE KEY IN
THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  84  67 /  30  70  50  80
FSM   91  69  87  69 /  10  40  30  70
MLC   88  72  85  70 /  10  30  20  70
BVO   88  69  83  64 /  40  80  60  80
FYV   86  67  83  68 /  10  60  30  80
BYV   87  66  82  67 /  10  70  30  80
MKO   88  68  85  68 /  10  50  30  80
MIO   88  69  83  66 /  20  80  50  80
F10   87  69  85  69 /  20  50  40  70
HHW   88  70  86  71 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07