000
FXUS64 KTSA 141857
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
157 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST. ONE MORE HOT
DAY IS IN STORE BEFORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES BRING TEMPS DOWN IN
THE COMING DAYS. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE NEAR 105 DEGREES IN THE
ARKANSAS AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE AS MODEL DATA AND INTUITION WOULD
SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS WILL COME DOWN WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON
MIXING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFT 06Z TONIGHT...CONTINUING THRU 15Z SAT
MORNING. SAT AFTERNOON STORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE COVERED IN
THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AFTER 6Z FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 100 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION...TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATE THIS WEEKEND...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR WOULD LIKELY POSE AT
LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE STALLING
NEAR THE RED RIVER BY TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  88  72  91 /  20  40  20  30
FSM   71  90  70  90 /  10  20  20  30
MLC   71  89  72  92 /  30  20  20  30
BVO   72  86  69  91 /  20  40  30  30
FYV   66  87  66  86 /  10  30  20  30
BYV   66  87  67  88 /  10  30  30  30
MKO   71  88  71  90 /  20  30  20  30
MIO   71  87  69  90 /  20  40  30  30
F10   72  88  72  90 /  30  30  20  30
HHW   71  90  72  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30